I'm Only Happy When It Rains

Garbage once sang “I’m only happy when it rains”. A sentiment Norwich City fans seem to have coopted as their own. An unofficial slogan for the club’s perennially downbeat supporters, who stalk the internet looking for reasons to be miserable.

Relegation at the end of last season was a bitter pill to swallow; this season, by contrast, seems to be going quite well so far. So why does that feel like such a controversial statement to make?

A situation which has played on my mind for some time was crystallised by a conversation I overheard at the gym a few weeks back. The day before, Norwich has gone to Goodison Park to play an away fixture against Everton in the League Cup; we won – and won fairly comfortably – but the manner of the win was also very encouraging. It was our first victory at Goodison for more than twenty years, in a cup competition (which we traditionally don’t perform well in). At that point Everton were sitting in second place in the Premier League. The much maligned Steven Naismith got himself back on the scoresheet, and one of our brightest young talents, who has come up through the club’s youth academy, Josh Murphy scored a brilliant solo goal as well.

So, I was surprised at the conversation I heard. A conversation in which two people clutched at ant straw they could find to diminish and undermine this result. A conversation in which everything good about the game was explained away and loftily dismissed, while tiny errors were magnified and fixated upon.

“Oh, but Everton didn’t put out their strongest side…” “Oh, but Naismith was fortune to get his goal…”

guys at the gym saying Norwich only won last night because Everton ‘put out a Reserves side’. It’s all I can do to keep out of it. #NCFC

— Kit Marsden (@manek43509) September 21, 2016

that’s not even true. But what annoys me is how some ‘supporters’ seek out any excuse to piss on this club from a great height. #NCFC

— Kit Marsden (@manek43509) September 21, 2016

they’d rather look for reasons to say “ahh, but y’see, it doesn’t really count…“ than enjoy a good performance and a damn fine result. #NCFC

— Kit Marsden (@manek43509) September 21, 2016

not just yesterday, in fact — but that past few games have been excellent for us. And you’d still rather look for reasons to complain? #NCFC

— Kit Marsden (@manek43509) September 21, 2016

I’m not going to say that supporters have no right to complain when they see disappointing results, sub-par performances, or feel let down by the club. But this was a performance worthy of praise, and a result which saw us progress to the next round of the cup. Is it so hard just to enjoy that? There will be plenty of legitimate reasons to be unhappy in the future – there always are – without seeking them out now.

The Everton game is not an isolated incident. After every victory (yes, victory) I will read comments about how we were “lucky”, we “scraped by”, we “didn’t deserve it”… When players make mistakes, or when the manager doesn’t get his tactics spot-on, fans are on their backs for it no time – sometimes for good reason. And yet when we win games, it is dismissed as “luck”, or treated as though it’s some sort of anomaly (even when we have – at the time of writing – an 83% unbeaten record in the league this season, having failed to score points only twice so far since the beginning of August).

Why are we – as a club, as supporters – so keen to minimise success, and to find a reason – any reason at all – to downplay good results and act as thought they somehow don’t count? While at the same time amplifying and parading our failures around as vindications of our own malcontented narcissism?

Why do some fans feel they can only celebrate winning with a caveat attached? We are we so keen to seek out the negatives in any situation?

In Alex Neil, we have a promising young manager who has won a Play-Off final, who has just been awarded Championship Manager Of The Month for September, and who has (at the time of writing) an overall 86% undefeated record at the Championship level.  And yet, a non-trivial number of fans frequently describe him as 'clueless', 'out-of-his-depth', and so on…  He 'gets lucky'; he's not 'proven'; 'the jury's still out'.  He'll always be blamed for losing a game, yet it seems people will go to extraordinary lengths not to give him credit for the good results which, statistically, are actually the norm.

That’s not say that there aren’t negatives in games, that the manager never makes mistakes, or that we can’t improve as a team. Several times this season, we seem to have ‘switched off’ towards the end of the game when we’re in the lead, and let in goals late on – we got away with it against Cardiff and against Wolves, but not against Newcastle. We’ve been awarded penalties which we haven’t converted into goals – whether that’s down to poor penalty-taking, or good goalkeeping on the part of the opposition ‘keeper (the latter of which we have no control over) is maybe up for debate, but we can’t afford to let it become a pattern of missed opportunities.

Fans have every right to be concerned about these issues – particularly if they happen more than once. I have flagged up both of these things on social media. I know we’re not perfect. Besides, part of sport is that no matter how well you’re doing, you’re always trying to improve.

But when you dominate a game, score good goals and win comfortable, and supporters’ comments after the match appear to fixate only on the minor details which could have been better – seeming to ignore completely the huge bulk of positives in the game – that strikes me as a little odd. Having high standards is one thing; being determined to look for the bad points, while chalking up anything good to luck or opposition errors is just bizarre.  Sure, it's completely understandable to point out what needs improving – but how is it so difficult also to acknowledge that, generally, we're doing pretty well right now?

Even if we were to register a ‘perfect’ performance in the league – playing well, dominating possession, scoring four or five goals, keeping a clean sheet, not even allowing the other side to register a shot on target – I would expect to see negative comments… We were lucky; the opposition were weak; that level of performance won’t be good enough if we get promoted…

This season is far from over; there is still an awfully long way to go. Our early results have put us in a very strong position, but we haven’t been promoted yet – and yet already I have seen people predicting another relegation from the Premier League next season… For me, this speaks to mindset of far too many supporters; even acknowledging a fairly self-evident fact – that we are clearly one of the early promotion contenders this season – is couched in negative terms, seeing it simply as a gateway to future disappointment rather than anything to be excited about in itself.

Trying to predict football results two years into the future is a fool’s errand, and yet for some there seems to be something cathartic about looking for any excuse to do the club down, make the worst of every situation, and seek out reasons to be unhappy where there ought not be any. They cannot, and will not, ever be satisfied; the idea of giving the team, or the manager, any credit for their success is so alien to them that they simply cannot bring themselves to do it. They’re only happy when it rains.

To me, that doesn’t sound like ‘support’ at all.

Premier League thinking cap

Today's big news in the world of football.

"Does this go far enough?" asks BBC Sport, of the news that price caps are to be trialled in the Premier League.  My initial reaction was that actually, it goes rather too far.

It may be a controversial view amongst football fans, but I have long been of the opinion that football clubs, as privately-run organisations, should have the right to charge what they like for the services or commodities they offer (including tickets to matches) – and that what is a "fair" price for tickets is determined by what people are prepared to pay to go to a game.  I have vocally defended the rights of clubs to raise their ticket prices, on various football discussion forums – normally in the face of near unanimous opposition from fans whose view of the matter is romanticised, rather than rationalised – and told people that if they think the cost of tickets is too high, the answer is to stop buying them.  This, after all, is how markets work; prices are set by what people are willing to pay for whatever is on offer.

But the more I think about the matter, the more I question my steadfast defence of the laws of supply-and-demand, in regards to ticket sales in football.  I am instinctively pro-free markets, and against intervention and price control, I make no bones about that.  But how "free" really is the "market" for football tickets?

After all, can the laws of supply-and-demand be said to apply equally to football, when the attitudes of "consumers" are so fundamentally different from in other areas?  In light of today's news about price caps on away tickets, I have been giving the issue some considerable thought; I don't claim to have any conclusive answers about the economics of football, not by a long way, but I am going to set out a few of my thoughts on the topic here, and invite comments – to my mind, this is a fascinating discussion, which we (as football supporters) should be talking about more openly.

So, let us first consider a "standard" model for a "free" market.  The same products or services are offered by multiple providers, and this creates competition in the market – different companies producing, say, washing powder are competing with each other for the same customers, and this encourages each company to produce better quality washing powder at a lower cost, in the hope of attracting consumers to purchase their products over the rivals' similar offerings.

In this way, what washing powder is "worth" is set by the people buying it, not by the people selling it – if the majority of consumers decide they won't pay Company A's higher prices, because they don't think it offers any real benefits over the cheaper washing powder offered by Company B, Company A will be forced to lower their prices (or prove that their product is worth the extra money) due to a lack of sales as consumers choose Company B instead, believing their product to be better value.

Now, contrast this with the "market" for football clubs.  At first glance, it is similar to the washing powder scenario; there are many football clubs, all around the country, all offering the opportunity for consumers to pay to watch football – some offering higher quality, some offer lower quality, some have high prices, some have lower prices, etc.

But this is a false equivalency.  It assumes that "consumers" of football are simply paying to watch football, and that they don't much care who is playing – just as consumers of washing powder probably aren't too bothered by which logo is on the box, as long as their laundry is clean and fresh.  No, unlike washing powder users, for football supporters the "brand" (ie. which team is playing) is all important; a lifelong Spurs fan (for example) isn't suddenly going to go and watch Leyton Orient play instead because the tickets are a bit cheaper – for him the important thing isn't simply watching football, it is watching Spurs.  And there isn't another Tottenham Hotspur Football Club just down the road, offering consumers the chance to watch the same team play for slightly less money.  In other words, the football "market" has an illusion of "competition" – but in reality, each club actually has a monopoly over its own "brand".

Brand loyalty exists in many areas of the market.  But nowhere is it so visceral as when it comes to supporting a particular football club.  The feelings many football fans have for their club go well beyond simple loyalty to a certain "brand" – the idea of football supporters as consumers who are willing to switch supplier to save money is ludicrous.  As such, it is difficult to apply the laws of supply-and-demand to the football "market" in exactly the same way as other areas.

Of course, "consumers" still have a choice.  But that choice is a binary one – either go to the game, or don't go.  No one is being forced to pay for something they feel is not worth the asking price, and there is an argument to be made that "consumer power" (ie. not buying tickets deemed to be "overpriced", and thus sending a club a message about pricing structures through the medium of lost ticket revenue) is still a better way of tackling the issue than imposing price controls.  But football blurs the boundaries of the way people make decisions; there is a huge cultural element to football, and those of us who wish to approach this discussion with cerebral objectivity would be foolish to ignore that.

I imagine (with no data to hand) that a not insignificant proportion of football fans would still prioritise going to matches over what might rationally be considered more "essential" expenses, if it came to that choice.  That is how serious the game – and perhaps more pertinently, the club – is to many people.  A central tenet of support for free markets must surely be a belief that people are able to make their own decisions, and a commitment to allowing them to do so; is it not therefore necessary to at least attempt to understand how they make those decisions?

The "value" of football to many people is more than simply a monetary value.  Much as my natural response might be not to interfere, and to allow the free market to take its course, I am forced to accept that the nature of football, and it's importance to many people, means the market choices may not truly be "free".

That is not to say that I am wholeheartedly endorsing the price cap on away tickets in the Premier League – I think there could be complications that arise from this, and that it could end up creating as many problems as it solves – but even if it goes against my instincts, more in-depth thought on the matter has meant I have had to concede that there is at the very least a decent case for giving it a try.  It will be very interesting to monitor the situation over the next few seasons, as the price cap is trialled, and then reevaluate things.

Should Norwich sack Alex Neil?

No.

I suppose I could leave it there – and this will have been the most straightforward, stress-free thing I've ever written.  But I imagine most people are expecting me to go on and explain why we should keep faith with Alex Neil, despite a recent run of poor form which has seen us sink into the bottom three of the Premier League table…

Let's start with something that should be obvious, but oddly never seems to be: sacking the manager is not a 'silver bullet' that fixes everything instantly.  Of course, I have written about this before, but that doesn't make any difference; as soon as you lose a couple of games, people start murmuring about sacking the manager, as if that always cures everything – if that were the case, clubs would have twenty different managers every season.  They don't, because that would be absurd.  Knee-jerk sackings are not the answer – and if you're the sort of person who would see their team lose and immediately reach for the P45 at the final whistle, without a moment's thought, you maybe need to reevaluate how you make decisions.

This view is a bizarre extension of the 'Something must be done!' attitude which sadly pervades many areas of life at the moment.  Anything that happens is met with a chorus of demands to ban something, remove something, change something, legislate for something…  Because something must be done!  Regardless of what that 'something' is.  It is the response of a feeble mind – and it won't help our club.

But let's move on from there.  Let's assume that we've got past reflexive demands for action-for-action's-sake, and decided that a change of manager actually might be no bad thing, on its own merits.  Before we do anything, we need to have a replacement lined up who is better.  Not 'just as good' – and certainly not worse! – but a guaranteed step up in quality from the manager we currently have.  And we need to be sure that this person is not only a better calibre of manager than the incumbent, but is available to start immediately, and would be willing to take a job at Norwich (a relegation-threatened club with, in Premier League terms, a relatively small budget).

So who is there who fits that bill?  If no names spring alacritously to mind, I'm not too surprised.  I can think of top-level managers who are out-of-work – but would they want to come to Norwich?  I can think of managers whose services we probably could secure – but would they really be better than Alex Neil?  I'm not convinced.  And unless both of those stipulations are met, we're better off doing nothing at all.

Oh, how short are the memories of some football supporters…

But what of Alex Neil himself?  Even if a good manager is available, and happy to start work tomorrow…  Does Alex really deserve the sack?!  This is a manager who came into the club midway through the season last year, when our promotion challenge looked to be fading, and turned things around.  We all remember the euphoria of our Play-Off Final day out at Wembley, don't we?  He did that.

This is the manager who got us promoted to the Premier League.  This is the manager who got a point away to Liverpool; the manager who got a point at home to top four Arsenal; the manager who beat Manchester United on their own turf.  That deserves recognition.

Yes, he has made mistakes – he is only thirty-four years old, and he is still learning his craft while having to adapt to a level higher than any previous challenge he has encountered in his fledgling managerial career – but he has potential and ambition aplenty, and has never been under any illusions about how tough a league the Premier League is.  Comments like 'out of his depth' or 'lost the plot' are harsh, to say the least.

It is unreasonable not to permit a young manager still finding his feet to make errors.  How else does one learn?  Not only is it unreasonable, though, it is stupid.  It is illogical.  Those mistakes, more often than not, stem from inexperience.  How does one gain experience?  Not by being sacked.

At this rate, the 'sacking culture' in modern football will cut off far too much promising young coaching talent at the knees.  Where will the next generation of football managers come from?

In ten years' time, people will look at the Premier League and ask: "Why are there so few talented British coaches managing at the top level?  Why is there no new blood in management in this country?"  Because they were sacked after four games in charge by ruthless CEOs acceding to the demands of unforgiving fans who cared more about exacting their pounds of flesh than looking to the future of either their own club, or the sport of football as a whole.

Alex Neil is a young manager who deserves his chance.  Norwich City need to give it to him.  And – who knows? – there is opportunity yet for that faith to be repaid.  Time has not run out; panicking now solves nothing.

Addendum (added Monday, 8th February, following various discussions on the topic):

Those who would favour Alex Neil's immediate removal have cautioned me more than once about the dangers of the club "leaving it too late" to sack him.  It is an argument – and an expression – which I abhor.  Even leaving aside the arrogance of thinking you are the person who can tell with absolute certainty when the optimum time would be for the club to act, what baffles me about this line of argument is that that it seems to skip over the question of whether or not Alex Neil should be sacked; it assumes that it is self-evident that he should be, and that the only matter left to settle is when.  It is an assumption which speaks to the central conceit of this outlook – that sacking the manager is always the answer.

The mindset seems to be that a manager's sacking is inevitable; that the only question around the issue is not "if" he should be sacked, but "when" to do it; and that sooner is always better.  This cannot be good for the club, or for the sport.  That is not a healthy attitude to have, and the worry here is that we will creep inexorably towards a farcical scenario where it is standard procedure to sack the manager after every loss, most managers last only a few weeks in a job, and the pool of managerial talent dries up completely.

Norwich's transfer nightmare

Tuesday's transfer deadline was pretty bruising experience for Norwich City fans.  While fans of other clubs were left celebrating last minute captures of exciting players, Norwich fans shook their heads sadly and wondered what on earth was going on…

Norwich's transfer business began quite brightly, following promotion to the Premier League via the Play-Off Final at Wembley; the permanent signing of Graham Dorrans (who had been on loan at Carrow Road last season) and the arrivals of Youssouf Mulumbu and Robbie Brady in midfield all showed promise and intent from the club.

But things have since turned very sour indeed.  Having been out a lot of Tuesday, I caught up on how all the Deadline Day news unfolded after the window had closed, and could barely believe what I was seeing.

I have long contended that Norwich have a strong core squad full of decent, hard working players – but that to be competitive in the Premier League the season, we needed to sign one proven striker, and one centre-back to partner Sebastien Bassong.  Dieumerci Mbokani has come in on loan from Dynamo Kiev, and Matt Jarvis has also been brought in (also on loan) from West Ham – but no defenders have arrived, which I feel leaves us shaky and vulnerable at the back, especially against the really top teams of this division.

Add to that the fact that we have let several players leave the club – including Bradley Johnson, who was undoubtedly one of our best players last season, as well as two other central midfielders who could've covered Johnson's position in the wake of his departure to Derby County – I can't see that we're much better off that we were before.

#Deadlinedaywaslike being slapped in the face by David McNally. #NCFC #DeadlineDay @BBCSport

— Kit Marsden (@manek43509) September 2, 2015

To see a club like Aston Villa sign a proven Premier League quality defender in Joleon Lescott for only £2m, while Charlie Austin – a striker with a fantastic Premier League record from last season – is passed over by every current top flight club, is painful.  Both of those players would've made excellent additions to the Norwich City squad (more so than endless midfielders!), and I'm left wondering why we couldn't make signings of that quality happen while Villa, Stoke City, West Ham and others spend money and add quality to their ranks to ensure they remain established in the Premier League.

This isn't the end of the world, of course – we still have players capable of doing a good job and winning games in the Premier League – but I feel we have left ourselves a much more difficult task than we needed to.  It's poor business from the club, indicative of a lack of ambition, and left me with a sinking feeling after reading through the transfer news after the window had closed.  I don't want to see us in a position where we have to pay well over the odds for mediocre players in the January transfer window, in the hope of salvaging an already floundering season.

Does Mark Lawrenson even watch the Premier League?

BBC Sport football pundit Mark Lawrenson writes his predictions for the weekend's Premier League matches each week on the BBC Sport website.  Or so we're told, anyway.  I'm beginning to suspect that he actually has a machine – working to some shonky algorithm, of course – churning them out for him, so he can collect a nice pay packet without actually having to do any work.

I doubt that Lawrenson has any idea who half the teams he's supposed to be writing about actually are.  That is the only explanation for how bizarre his predictions seem to be at times.

For my team, Norwich City, he consistently predicts losses.  Whether we're playing well, or playing badly, have injuries or a full squad, make signings or not – his reasoning seems to be simply "it's Norwich, so they'll lose".  We could have Messi and Ronaldo both playing for us, and Lawrenson would still tip us to lose 1-0 to West Brom (or something), just because it's Norwich.

Which is ridiculous.  Lawrenson's prediction for Sunday's away match is that Norwich will lose to Southampton.  This is in spite of the fact that Southampton are yet to win a league game this season, whilst Norwich have, and almost all football analysts seem to agree that although four points from the opening three games is a decent haul for the Canaries, we could – and quite possibly should – have more.

Lawrenson says so himself, in his writing for this week's predictions, as well as alluding to Southampton's slow start and also mentioning that they will be fatigued from a midweek game in the Europa League.

Sure, a team who 'have not really got going yet' are
bound to beat a team who 'have looked pretty
solid' so far…  There's no flaw in this reasoning! 

And yet, in spite of all the evidence he himself has presented to the contrary, he predicts Southampton to win 2-1.  Maybe they will.  Who knows?  But the pre-match form of both teams, and their differing circumstances, do not suggest that.

Lawrenson seems to work only from the reputation a team has in his own mind.  Southampton are generally perceived to be a club 'on the up', with a growing reputation – whilst Norwich would be considered minnows in this league even if they won it three seasons on the trot.

Thankfully, it's what happens on the pitch which counts, not what happens in Mark Lawrenson's mind.

Wembley: One week on

This time last week, I was taking my place in the stands at Wembley Stadium (Block 121, Row 19, Seat 274 – if you're interested), preparing to watch Norwich City play Middlesborough for the honour of promotion to the Premier League in what's been dubbed the 'richest match in football', the Championship Play-Off Final.  As I did so, I thought back to a piece I wrote in this Blog a few months before, called What If Norwich Don't Go Up? – and I wondered whether I'd need it in a few hours time.

Here we go…! #NCFC #PlayOffFinal #OTBC

A photo posted by Kit Marsden (@manek43509) on May 25, 2015 at 6:54am PDT

Thankfully, Norwich dominated the game, and ran out 2-0 winners to secure a return to the top flight at the first time of asking.  The jubilation of Norwich supporters at the final whistle was a far cry from the despair we'd all felt almost exactly a year before, as we were relegated from the Premier League.

Final whistle. 2-0 Norwich, we are going up! #NCFC #PlayOffFinal

A video posted by Kit Marsden (@manek43509) on May 25, 2015 at 1:56pm PDT

But even in the midst of these joyous scenes, I was conscious that we were now in for a long summer of speculation, transfer rumours, and arguing on fan forum websites and social media.  So, having deliberately waited a week for the dust to settle and the euphoria to die down slightly, here are my thoughts on Norwich City going forward into the Premier League in 2015…

Shortly after our relegation last season, I wrote a long piece about our attitude as a club, and about setting long-term aims.  I spoke about wanting to become an established Premier League club – not a 'yo-yo club' which bounces up and down between the top of the Championship and the bottom of the Premier League.

In my view, our approach should be the same as I outlined when I wrote about What If Norwich Don't Go Up? – evolution, not revolution.  The way to get the stability we need is to stick with what we know works; as I said before, we have a good thing going with Alex Neil, and with a squad of players who are hungry for success and working hard, and we shouldn't jeopardise that with big changes.

I was pleased to see that the club wasted very little time in making Graham Dorrans' loan contract into a permanent move.  I like what Dorrans brings to the team, and he has good Premier League experience with West Brom.  For me, keeping hold of the players – and the coaching team – that we currently have has to be our first priority.

After that, we can look at strengthening in a few key areas.  Not replacing the players we have, for the most part, but adding to the squad in subtle, but clever ways.  In my opinion, there are two main positions to look at: centre-back, and centre-forward.  Let's talk about each individually.

Defensively, Norwich City have been a case-study in how important it is to get the right manager.  At the start of the season which has just ended, we were shaky at the back, and unsure of ourselves; Alex Neil, however, has taken the same players and toughened up our defence no end.  Sebastien Bassong – a proven Premier League defender, and a former Player Of The Season for Norwich – was out in the wilderness until Neil took charge, but in the Play-Offs we saw Bassong back to his best.  Steven Whittaker has long been thought of as something of a weak point by Norwich fans, but when I saw him at Wembley he looked Premier League quality.

Unfortunately – and it pains me to say this – the same cannot be said for Russell Martin.  To be fair to Martin, centre-back isn't actually his favoured position – but although he has been a great servant to the club and a fantastic Captain all season, he has been culpable for some of the mistakes which have cost us.  Think back to the Play-Off Semi-Finals against Ipswich, and ask yourself whose poor clearances led to Ipswich's equalising goal at Portman Road.  We can't afford these sorts of slips against Premier League opposition.  This is why I feel another dedicated, quality centre-back to partner Bassong would be a worthwhile investment.

Who should be we get?  This is where, whatever you suggest, you get a load of stick from other football fans for being either unrealistic or unambitious (or sometimes, even, both), or just for not knowing what you're talking about.  Personally, however, I quite like the idea of Steven Caulker from recently relegated QPR.

The striker position is a more contentious one.  My opinion is that we already have some good forward players in Cameron Jerome, Gary Hooper and Lewis Grabban.  I think most people would agree with this.  But after that, it gets a bit tricky.  What is to be done, for example, about club record signing Ricky Van Wolfswinkel – currently on loan at Saint-Étienne in France?

Van Wolfswinkel is unfortunate in that he has come to symbolise everything that was bad about the disastrous 2013-14 Premier League campaign, which ultimately ended with Norwich being relegated to the Championship.  He arrived at the club with a lot of hype, and an enormous price tag, but ended up scoring only one goal on the opening day of what was otherwise an injury-blighted, disappointing season.  The case against Van Wolfswinkel rests entirely on this statistic – one goal in a whole season is poor for a player supposed to be an élite striker.  The obsession with this statistic is, however, wilfully short-sighted and – I think – slightly unfair.

I think it is worth giving Van Wolfswinkel a second chance in the Premier League.  It is true that his scoring record in what is so far his only season in the division is pitiful, but this doesn't tell the whole story.  I don't think it is simply the case – as some Norwich supporters have suggested – that Van Wolfswinkel simply "isn't good enough" for the Premier League; his 2013-14 season was compromised from the start by the pressure of stepping into the shoes of club legend and former talismanic striker Grant Holt – and he was further hampered injuries, and then by being rushed back into first team action too soon after injury, and then by ongoing confidence issues caused by being an obvious focal point for fan's frustrations during the season as he struggled to live up to the almost unreal levels of hype which accompanied his arrival at the club, and as the rest of the team floundered around him.

We have already seen that players such as Whittaker and Bassong have been revitalised under Alex Neil – I think Neil is a tactically astute manager, but also a manager who can handle people, and who has shown himself to be capable of getting the best out of players, and he would be able to work this magic on Van Wolfswinkel too.  With his confidence back, and in a somewhat less high-profile a rôle as an impact substitute or as a second striker playing off (say) Cameron Jerome, the dutchman may yet have a part to play in the Norwich City story.  It's worth a shot.

We should also, however, buy another striker.  There are clamours to discover "the next Michu" – a previously unknown player from outside the usual hunting grounds who turns out to be a revelation in the Premier League.  Unfortunately, the example of Michu shows what a gamble this can also be, considering his fall from grace after his first dazzling season with Swansea – an obscure player might turn out to be a twenty-goal-a-season bargain of the century, but could just as easily be another big flop.

My opinion is that it's better to buy a proven striker with a good track record at the highest level – but someone who is possibly coming towards the end of their career.  In the much the same way that, for example, Samuel Eto'o ended up at Everton after an illustrious career at Champions' League clubs.  Of course, we might be getting a little ahead of ourselves if we start comparing Norwich even with clubs like Everton, in terms of what we can afford when it comes to buying a striker – but there must be someone around who was previously a top-class player, who's getting on a little and wouldn't get a look in at the big clubs now, but who's looking to play one or two more seasons of football and could still do a decent job?

One name that's been mentioned a couple of times is Luca Toni.  He's thirty-eight now, but after a career playing for some of the biggest names in club football, the Italian has shown he can still score goals for mid-table Verona in Serie A.  Would they perhaps be willing to sell – or loan – him?  Would he be willing to come?  Who knows!  But it's got to be worth a try.

What if Norwich don't go up?

With three games left in the Championship this season, Norwich sit second in the table, one point off Bournemouth (who are top); promotion is entirely within our grasp, and our fate is in our own hands. Things are looking good.

So, ever the gloomy realist, my mind has turned to thoughts of what will happen if, from this position of strength, we fail to win promotion to the Premier League.  If we stay in the Top Two, where we currently are, automatic promotion will be ours and everything will be straightforward – but if we slip only a small way into third (which, in a league as tight as this, is eminently possible), we are faced with the unpredictability of the Play-Offs, where anything can happen and where there are no second chances.  Even now, it's not impossible that we will still be in the Championship next season.  So, what happens then?

Well, hopefully: nothing.  We've got a good thing going here – even if we don't achieve our stated aim of promotion to the Premier League, we must do everything we can not to mess that up!

Alex Neil has done a fantastic job since taking over at Norwich in January, and almost all Norwich fans are now giving him the credit he fully deserves for our recent good form.  Despite this, I fully expect to see a slew of 'sack the manager!' posts on social media if, for whatever reason, we don't go up this year.

Neil's record at Norwich currently is: Played 19; Won 14; Drawn 3; Lost 2.  That's a 73.68% win percentage – and 89.47% of games unbeaten.  Those are some pretty remarkable statistics.

On top of that, we have an excellent squad who – bar a few blips across the season – have worked brilliantly together, shown true team spirit, and played some excellent football.

Overall, we're doing a lot of things right, and should we fail to be promoted this season the call should not be for radical change, but to try and preserve what we already have, and everything that is good about it.

Off with his head!

Off with his head! they are screaming on the Norwich City football forums, like the Queen Of Hearts in Alice In Wonderland, following an embarrassing 4-0 defeat to Middlesborough last night.  As the blistering start to the season fades and gives way to the grit and slog of a 46-match campaign in the SkyBet Championship, more and more people are starting to espouse the view that manager Neil Adams should be let go.  The fools!

I have said before that Adams was not my first choice as a permanent manager, following relegation from the Premier League at the end of last season.  I stand by that.  But he's there now – and, at this stage, sacking him will almost certainly do more harm than good.

Far too many football fans see sacking the manager as a 'silver bullet' – an instant solution which will wipe away all the problems of a struggling club, as if they were never there.  It isn't.  It never has been, and it never will be.

(It is worth pointing out, at this stage, that Norwich are not a 'struggling club'.  We are seventh in the Championship, as things stand, and only four points off the top two clubs.  It is easy to throw around 'soundbite statistics' like only two wins in the last ten games; it's just as easy to express the same statistic as only three losses in the last ten games – either way, it's relatively meaningless.  It cannot be said firmly enough: this is not a crisis.)

Sacking the manager is, in many respects, the easy bit.  You tell him you don't want him any more, and he's gone – and, in doing so, you slake the disgruntled fans' baying for blood.  The tricky part is what happens next.  You have to appoint a new manager.  Who?

Who is there who's available, and not already at a club?  Who is there who's going to want to come and manage a Championship side like Norwich?  Who is there who's going to be a guaranteed step up from Adams (if the guy you get in next isn't going to be a guaranteed step up, what was the point of sacking the last guy, if the new one's not going to be any better?!)?

Nobody has any answers to these questions.  People don't consider the 'afterwards' – just as those who call for revolution don't have any coherent plan for what will replace the ancien régime.  All wrongs will be righted, 'come the revolution'.  How?  Nobody knows.  Managerial changes are messy, tumultuous upheavals, which have huge affects on a club; if you're going to put the club through that turmoil again, there had better be a bloody good plan for 'afterwards'!

As I have written before, the way to become an established Premier League club (which is, after all, the aim) is to have a long-term plan.  It is also worth stating, at this juncture, that stability is more important than timescale; that is to say, if promotion this season meant relegation again next season, whilst waiting for promotion until the season after next would more likely yield a prolonged stay in the Premier League, I would choose the latter every time – I want long-term success, not to become a 'yo-yo club'.  A managerial 'merry-go-round' is the opposite of all of this – it is a quick fix; it is short-term thinking; and it is very, very stupid.

May I take your order?

Anyone who's watched Match Of The Day regularly has probably complained about Match Of The Day almost as often.  Almost all football fans seem to be convinced that the BBC's flagship football programme is biased against their team - and one of the most common complaints is about the order in which the matches are shown.  When Norwich City were in the Premier League, we always seemed to be the last game on Match Of The Day, and supporters felt this was being done deliberately.  Well, I know how to put this issue to bed, once-and-for-all…

Instead of leaving the running order up to a real person, whose judgement can be called into question, there should be a formula for deciding this, based on nothing but cold, hard facts.  The best way is to link the order to position in the league table at the time.  I have done a mock-up of this for last Saturday's Match Of The Day, so you can see how this would work.

There were six games played on Saturday:

• Manchester City vs. Aston Villa
• Hull vs. Crystal Palace
• Leicester vs. Burnley
• Liverpool vs. West Brom
• Sunderland vs. Stoke
• Swansea vs. Newcastle

And this was the Premier League table on Saturday, as Match Of The Day went on-air:

So, my formula would take an aggregate league position (ALP), by calculating the mean average of the two teams' standings in the table.  (For example, if the top two teams in the table were to play each other, their ALP would be 1.5 [1st place + 2nd place, divided by two] and so this would be the first game shown.)

Under this system, Saturday's Match Of The Day running order would therefore be as follows:

• ALP 4.5 - Manchester City vs. Aston Villa
• ALP 9.5 - Liverpool vs. West Brom
• ALP 11 - Swansea vs. Newcastle
• ALP 11 - Hull vs. Crystal Palace
• ALP 13 - Sunderland vs. Stoke
• ALP 14 - Leicester vs. Burnley

(As you can see, two games have identical ALPs - of the four teams involved in these two games, Swansea are the highest in the table, so their match with Newcastle gets shown first.)

Oh, but what if a game between two teams lower down the table is really exciting?!

…you might be saying.

Well, that doesn't matter!  When the formula is in control, the order is what it is - it isn't affected by subjectivity, and the teams whose matches are shown first have earnt that right through their previous good results, so there can be no complaints.  And besides, if the 'exciting' games aren't always right at the start, there's more chance of everyone watching all the way to the end.

The BBC need to implement my system of ordering matching matches now.  They will thank me.

#NCFC season comparisons

Norwich have now won four away games this season – twice as many as we won in the whole of last season. Which is great. But also completely meaningless.

Comparisons between last season and this season have very little worth because relegation to the Championship has made any cross-season analysis inherently uneven. Is it any surprise that a team will win more games in the lower division than in the top flight?

Of course, it’s brilliant to see Norwich doing well, scoring goals, winning games, and (at the time of writing) topping the Championship table. But holding up these facts as proof positive that the manager and/or the squad are an improvement on last year’s is to misrepresent the relative levels of the Championship and the Premier League; I’m not saying that Norwich haven’t improved from last year, but it is foolish to ignore that the opposition have got significantly easier also.

Foreign bodies in the box

As at every major international tournament (and oftentimes in between, as well), the topic of foreign players playing in English football leagues is being hotly debated by a whole host of people who have spectacularly missed the point.

The argument goes that too many of those nasty foreign players are coming over here with their 'skills' and their 'work ethic' and clubs are playing them instead of decent, honest homegrown English players, who are left sitting on the bench, barely getting any game time at all.  And, therefore, this hurts the national team when it comes to big tournaments, because our players can't seem to get a game at club level.

There may well be something in that.  But calling for restrictions or regulations is a nonsense which would ruin football in this country.  Of course clubs are going to play their strongest starting XI given the opportunity - what else would you expect them to do?!  If the foreign players are better, more naturally gifted, and work harder in training than their English counterparts, isn't it up to those English players to up their game?

If you're not good enough to start for your club, then you're not good enough - don't whinge about it, don't go running to mummy and daddy claiming the other kids are being mean to you… Do something about it!  To argue for restrictions is no different, in principle, from the Luddite protectionism displayed by London cab drivers in response to a competitor (in the shape of taxi app Uber) appearing on the market.

But this is all a smokescreen for the real issue which haunts the England team - the fact that none of England's players are playing in foreign leagues.  Far from wringing our hands worrying about foreign players 'coming over here', we should be 'going over there'.

Where the #ENG starting XI play their club football. #ENGvITA pic.twitter.com/RX2J6X1zVS
— BBC 606 (@bbc606) June 14, 2014

Why is that?  Well, we hear a lot of talk about how the Premier League is the best league in the world - it clearly isn't (although that's definitely a topic for another post!), but what it does have is a very distinctive style of play.  Almost all the players who have played for England in my lifetime have stayed in England their entire careers - which makes them rather one-dimensional, no matter how good they are.  The 'English way of playing' is all they know - and when players with such little experience of different styles of playing come up against other international teams during the World Cup, they often don't know how to handle them.

When you look at the best international football teams, their squads are melting pots of a range of various footballing cultures from around the world; they will have players who play club football in the Premier League, in La Liga, in the Bundesliga, in Brazil, in Argentina, in the US - and this gives them a much more rounded experience of football in general.  Personally, I would prefer to see more English players signing for clubs abroad (even - and this is crucial - if not necessarily for the top clubs in those foreign leagues), gaining more knowledge of different footballing styles, different climates, different stadia, etc. - and then drawing all these diverse experiences together to mould an exciting and multi-faceted England team which knows its opponents and can anticipate them.

But this will never happen, because in England we are cursed with a vastly overinflated opinion of our own football culture, and refuse to see the bigger picture.

#NCFC - the future's yellow

Every fairytale comes to an end after a while.  Norwich City's relegation to the Championship last weekend marked the end of an era which had seen the club gain back-to-back promotions after the dark days of a 7-1 defeat to Colchester United in League One in 2009, and go on to spend three successive seasons in the Premier League.

It is with no inconsiderable trepidation that I take to the airwaves of the internet to write about the situation at Norwich City now.  However, one of the greatest things about sport is its ability to get people talking; differences of opinion are common, but there is always room for debate.

For Norwich fans, the 2013-14 season has been characterised predominantly by acrimony and bitter disappointment.  It has been a season of frustration and anger, with few high points, considerable periods of misfortune, and culminating in relegation from the Premier League.

There is little mileage, however, in a backward-looking 'blame game', at this point - and fans who are looking for a single figure of woe at whose door they can lay all the responsibilities for this train-wreck of a season are going to be disappointed.  Who will be our scapegoat now that manager Chris Hughton is gone?  Club CEO David McNally?  Interim manager Neil Adams?  Record signing Ricky Van Wolfswinkel?  No, far more productive than a bile-satiating but ultimately fruitless quest to apportion blame is to look to the future, and think about how we move on from this.

down. RT @BobRutler: There's a special #canarycall from 9am tomorrow morning. Where do we go from here? #ncfc
— Kit Marsden (@manek43509) May 7, 2014

The question on everybody's lips now is "who will be the next manager?"  It's a good question.  Already, there are rumours flying around that Malky Mackay has been offered with the position.  A favourite with the fans, and widely regarded to have been very wrongfully treated during his time in the Premier League with Cardiff City, Mackay was already on Norwich fans' managerial radar long before the sacking of Hughton at the beginning of April.

When I wrote at the time about the various managerial options open to the club, I said that, in my opinion, Mackay was a good manager, but not necessarily a 'step up' - and although he should've been given more time by Cardiff, his record in the Premier League was, overall, quite poor.  Of course, the situation has changed now; Norwich will be a Championship team next season, not a Premier League team, and Mackay has a proven track record of getting a team promoted from the Championship.

However, I feel the club needs to tread very carefully here.  To allow ourselves to slip into the mindset of being a 'Championship club' could be a very slippery slope indeed.

Now, I don't buy this nonsense some fans seem to be pedalling that it's better to be in the Championship anyway.  Some people are saying that the Championship is a closer-fought, more exciting league; that the games are better to watch; that the league is more open because it's not dominated by a handful of super-rich clubs; that "at least, in the Championship, we might win some games".  I am reminded of an expression my Grandfather had - that "it's better to be bottom of the top group than top of the bottom group".  It might help to make you feel better about relegation to say these things, but this is a loser's attitude; the Premier League is the elite of football in this country, and it is where all clubs should want to be - if you don't want to be in the top flight, then what is your raison d'être as a club?

So, let's forget that argument straight away.  As a football club, we want to get back into the Premier League as quickly as possible.  But again, we need to be a little careful here, and not take too shortsighted an approach.  Winning promotion again would be fantastic, of course - but this time, that needs to be sustainable.  What we need is a strategy which not only gets us back into the Premier League, but keeps us there.

This is why I am slightly wary of the forthcoming managerial appointment.  I am worried that those making the big decisions at the club won't be thinking big enough - that they will start to think of us as a 'Championship club', and therefore appoint a 'Championship manager'.  The groundwork for becoming an established Premier League team needs to start now, not after promotion, and that comes from the top, with a good, ambitious manager.

Malky Mackay might win automatic promotion with Norwich, just as he did with Cardiff - and that would be excellent.  But would he then struggle in the Premier League with Norwich, as he did with Cardiff?  Mackay is a safe and solid choice, and would do a good job - but, in my view, there are better managerial options out there.

In my previous post about Norwich City's managers, I spoke of Michael Laudrup (inexplicably sacked by Swansea during the season just gone) as being my preferred candidate.  In his first season at Swansea, Laudrup's record was excellent, and I think his style and approach would suit Norwich well.  Another name to throw into the hat (which was not the case back in February), would be Tim Sherwood - with the highest win percentage of any Spurs manager ever, and with links to Norwich City already, Sherwood was let go by Tottenham just this morning, and will surely be looking for opportunities to get back into management.

Again, as I said before, it is easy to throw these names around.  Hey, while we're at it, why don't we try and get Jupp Heynckes out of retirement?!  The other side to the coin is whether these managers would even want to come to Norwich anyway.  As a newly relegated club, whose form in the league over the past few months has been pretty dire, we are surely an even less attractive destination for ambitious, forward-thinking managers than we were before?

Well, maybe so.  But this is where we need to bring our biggest strengths into play - namely, the club's strong financial position, and passionate fan-base - and, again, where our top brass need to be thinking big, and long-term.  We don't know what options Laudrup or Sherwood (or, for that matter, Heynckes!) have on the table already; it may be that an approach from Norwich would be by far and away the best job offer either of them has had since their respective sackings - or it may be that they're both already being courted by Man. Utd., Arsenal and Real Madrid.  Who knows?!

What we need to do, though, is approach these managers and set out a vision for the club.  We need to show them that there is money available for transfers, and that they will be allowed to bring in the players that they want; we need to assure them that we're not the sort of club to indulge in knee-jerk sackings the moment we concede a goal or lose a game; and, most importantly of all, we need to make it clear that the club has long-term ambitions to become an established part of the Premier League, and that we are building this from the ground up, starting now.

There is no doubt that this is going to be a very hard task for whoever takes over.  The Championship is very competitive, and lots of clubs are after that prize of promotion, and a shot at the big time.  But this is why it is now so important to lay the foundations for a long-term plan; relegation from the Premier League is not a reason to be less ambitious - no, it is a reason to be more ambitious.

Never say 'die'

For Norwich City fans, today's 1-0 defeat by fellow Premier League strugglers Fulham was a huge disappointment.  Billed as a 'must-win' game - as classic 'relegation six-pointer' - it was believed that whoever lost this match would be in serious trouble.

Serious trouble, yes.  But not certain relegation.  The Norwich City FC Facebook page has quickly filled up with comments saying "well, that's that, then - we're definitely going down now!"  I don't know how anyone can be so sure.

Football is inherently unpredictable.  How anyone can say with such cocksure arrogance that relegation is a certainty for Norwich now is beyond me.  After all, while the result at Fulham today doesn't exactly help matters, as things stand we're still not in the Relegation Zone even now.

Plenty of supporters are pointing to 'the Run-In', and the fact that Norwich's last four games are against four of the so-called 'big teams'; many people believe that, although Norwich are currently 17th, Fulham (and maybe even Cardiff, too) can catch us because their final four games are that bit easier.

Even though this ignores the fact that there are no 'easy games' in the Premier League, I am again at a loss to understand how these people can be so certain.  The prevailing attitude seems to be that the possibility of Norwich taking any points at all from their last four fixtures is so unlikely as to be discounted entirely - but the fact is, nothing is impossible, and stranger things have happened in football, over the years.  After all, few people would've given Norwich a hope of beating Spurs earlier this season, or holding Manchester City to a very creditable draw after having been hammered 7-0 the first time around.

Yes, staying is going to be difficult for Norwich, and there is no doubt that the task which now faces us is enormous - but there are so many factors involved in this equation, no one can really know for definite what will happen.  To act as though relegation is already a mathematical certainty is as foolish as to act as if survival is a certainty - and that sort of negativity and despair does nobody any favours.

If the manager, one of his staff, or any of the players came out after today's match and publicly stated that we hadn't got a hope they would be absolutely crucified by the media and the fans - and rightly so!  They would be expected to keep fighting right to the very end, giving everything they have for the club and its supporters.  So why do some people think it is OK for us, as fans, just to give up on our season with four games still left to play?

Let's not be under any delusions as to how tough the remainder of this season will be.  But we can still beat the drop, and there is still everything left to play for - so let's get behind the manager and the team, and give it everything we've got for these last four games!

Ignore my stupid Profile Picture - the points are still valid...!

Can Norwich City survive?

Yes.  Obviously.

But will we?  Well, these are worrying times for Canaries fans.  As I write this, we are currently losing 1-0 to Southampton.  For a variety of (non-footballing) reasons, this is the match this season which I have most wanted us to win - there's still time to take something from the game, of course, but at the moment it all seems very disappointing.

However, the most irritating thing is the way other people talk about relegation and survival chances around this time of year.  And when I say 'people', I mean so-called 'expert' pundits and commentators, and also the general public 'have-your-say' types who text or Tweet into the BBC Sport live text...

This whole season, Norwich have been haunted by the spectre of the run-in.  The 'run-in' has hung over Carrow Road like the sword of damocles; I think there is something in Alan Hansen's and Alan Shearer's contracts which says they can't make a comment about Norwich without mentioning it.

For those who are not familiar with the concept of the run-in, it is all to do the fact that the final four games of our season are against four 'big' teams, and that it will be difficult to pick up the points required in these games, if survival has not been ensured before that point.  I appreciate that this is a pretty tough run of games with which to end the season - but if you put things into perspective, and realise that all the teams in the Premier League have to play all the other teams twice over a season, and that the number of points available from these matches is the same irrespective of when in the season they occur, the significance of the run-in does diminish somewhat.

When you consider that, last year, everyone had discounted Norwich's trip to play Man. City at the Etihad on the final day of the season in their survival calculations (thinking there was no way we could win that match, and that we would need to have secured Premier League status ahead of that day) - and, in the end, we went there and beat Man. City 3-2, the significance of the run-in decreases yet further.

However, even more baffling is the way people talk about the games before these final four!  It is universally acknowledged that at least three of these four teams are playing some of the best football in the country, and have formidably impressive records this season.  The same cannot be said of Sunderland, Swansea, West Brom and Fulham.  But people are just as keen to discount Norwich's chances in those games as they are against the 'big' teams.

The logic here seems to be that games against top teams are very tricky because they are good teams with some of the most highly talented footballers in the world playing for them - whilst games against teams in the bottom half of the table are very tricky because they are desperately scrapping for their survival in a highly competitive environment.

This is, of course, true - and leads us to inescapable conclusion that every game in the Premier League is a hard game.  So why obsess over it?

Why do we continually point at the next game, or the next three games, or the last however-many games, and solemnly intone that 'these are hard fixtures' - when we know that the same could be said of any given run of games in any season.  There are no easy matches in the Premier League - everyone knows that - and those fixtures against the really world-class teams who completely destroy you all over the field are inevitable, whenever they occur in the season.

So, let's stop barking up this entirely unsatisfying tree.

I think we're all aware that there have been issues with Norwich's performances this season.  All too often, we have played well, but not got the result we deserved; or we have played poorly and got the result we deserve; or we have started well, gone ahead by one goal, and then let the lead slip and ended up losing.  We are not creative enough on the pitch, and our strikers have not been scoring at the rate we need.  The extent to which these issues are down to bad management is still open for debate, and not something I'm going to discuss here.

But I still believe that we are not one of the three worst teams in the division.  We are in a precarious position, and it would be wrong to kid ourselves otherwise - but I think we have a decent chance of staying up.  To do that, we need to pick up points; how we get them, or against whom, is entirely irrelevant - but poring over our fixture list with tears in our eyes, writing 'tough game' against each date in thick red marker pen won't help at all.

We know these games are going to be difficult - we've accepted that fact - now let's not fixate on that fact, let's focus on the football.

"I Tried To Push Him Away With My Head"

The big story from the day's Premier League action today was that Newcastle United manager Alan Pardew had headbutted Hull City midfielder David Meyler during a disagreement on the touchline, and had therefore been sent to the stands by the referee.

Obviously, Pardew's actions are disgraceful - and inexcusable.  But the reaction to this incident has been quite bizarre...

BBC Sport pundit Robbie Savage has been wrong before.  These comments make very little sense, though.  Why should Newcastle's position in the League table, or the fact they've been knocked out of both domestic cup competitions, have any bearing on this matter?  I know the FA are renowned for the inconsistency of their punishments in such situations as these, but if they base their decision about how to deal with Pardew in this instance on Newcastle's form this season they will make a mockery of the entire thing.

Various people have been calling for Pardew to be sacked by Newcastle United.  I think that's ridiculous.

Why should the club sack him because of this?  He will be given his punishment by the FA (and quite rightly so) - probably a fine, plus a ban of a certain number of matches - and of course, the club can't be seen to condone this sort of behaviour.  But to get rid of him entirely would be foolish, after he's done a very good job with the team he has this season.

When a player gets pulled up for bad conduct, he has to accept whatever punishment the FA hands him.  But he doesn't expect to be jettisoned by his club, as well.  Indeed, in the majority of recent cases the club has stood by the player involved (as in the case of Luis Suárez biting Bransislav Ivanović at the end of last season, or West Ham Captain Kevin Nolan's two Red Cards [so far] this season).

Pardew deserves a hefty fine, and he deserves a ban.  Anything more is hyperbole.  And to suggest that these cases should be judged circumstantially, rather than on their own merit (as Robbie Savage seems to) and therefore to accept - even encourage - inconsistency in FA judgements, is utterly ludicrous.

We are not a-Moyes-d

Forgive the weak pun in the title.  When I was growing up, I learnt that 'a weak pun is better than no pun at all' - it isn't, but never mind.

I'm writing this with half an eye on the BBC Sport Champions' League Live Text, giving updates on Manchester United's progress against Greek Champions Olympiakos in the first leg of the Champions' League Last 16 tie.

Despite being the favourites to go through to the Last 8, the Premier League side are currently losing 2-0, and that's causing considerable consternation amongst their (many) fans.  Much of the anger, of course, is directed at new manager David Moyes - whose debut season in Manchester, I think it's fair to say, hasn't exactly gone off without a hitch.

I think it's pretty clear that, after the glory of the Sir Alex Ferguson era, Moyes would have come in for criticism no matter how his first season at Old Trafford had gone.  But the longer this season goes on, the clearer it becomes that something is definitely wrong in the red half of Manchester right now - and even those fans who sensibly decided to give Moyes a chance, instead of damning him before a ball was kicked, are starting to have second thoughts.

But how much trouble are United really in?

6th in prem, lost to Swansea and Sunderland in cups,possibly going out to olympiakos in champs , a team that won league by a mile last year
— Robbie Savage (@RobbieSavage8) February 25, 2014

BBC Sport pundit Robbie Savage is certainly not the first to espouse this view.  I'm sorry Robbie, but just like your prediction that Norwich City will be relegated from the Premier League this season, this is complete nonsense!  This may be 'the same team' that won the League last year, but that overly-simplistic view fails to take into account that they were an ageing team even last year (and therefore are even older now); they have been hit by injuries to key players (such as Robin Van Persie) this season, which last year they were not; their main domestic rivals have strengthened around them while United largely kept the same squad - if you stand still, you go backwards; and a new manager - any new manager - is going to take a little while to get settled in the shoes of the exceptional Sir Alex Ferguson (the likes of whom it is unlikely football in this country will ever see again).

Having said that, Moyes' approach often seems slapdash and haphazard.  OK, he inherited a squad of players used to playing under one manager - many of whom are in the twilights of their careers by now, and others simply don't look up to the task - and he has (for whatever reason) not really put his own stamp on the squad since arriving in the job.  But it remains unclear what his vision for Manchester United is, and how he wants his team to play.

An interesting comparison to make would be Brendan Rodgers at Liverpool.  Liverpool is a club with a rich and successful history and passionate supporters all over the world - a club which expects success.  Rodgers was brought in from Swansea after his first season in the Premier League with them, and was largely unproven at the highest level.  Many fans were sceptical of the appointment, and quickly became disgruntled when Liverpool only managed seventh in the table in their first season under Rodgers.

However, a year on, Liverpool currently sit in the Top Four with an outside shot at winning the title and a real chance of Champions' League qualification next season.  They have had the most potent attack in the Premier League so far this year, and pundits wax lyrical about their style of play.  Liverpool fans are seeing that sticking with Rodgers even after a shaky first season is paying dividends - and that he is fast establishing himself as a very promising manager with a distinctive style, capable of coping with the pressures of managing a 'big' club in the Premier League.

In contrast, Moyes seems to be crumpling under the pressure of being in charge of Manchester United (although, admittedly, this is far larger than any pressure Rodgers has been under at Liverpool), and he doesn't seem to have a vision for his team, or for the club.  Praised with doing an excellent job with very limited resources for many years at Everton (who, conversely, actually look a better team now under Roberto Martinez than they did last season, and are currently above Manchester United in the table), Moyes has yet to show that he is able to adapt to the step up in expectation which comes with managing arguably the biggest and most famous football club in the world.

Personally, I think Manchester United would be absolutely mad to sack Moyes now.  The changeover from the Sir Alex Ferguson period was always going to take time, and Moyes deserves a chance to put his own stamp on things at the club - but he needs to decide what that stamp will look like, and act on it!

Manchester United will still be an attractive, desirable destination for top players during the summer transfer window; a club of that stature, with that record of success, doesn't lose its appeal after just one dodgy season.  But Moyes needs to throw his weight around in the transfer window, and start to shape the team he wants to see at Old Trafford, because another season like this one probably won't be tolerated by a club so used to winning trophies.

The word 'crisis' is bandied around far too much, these days.  Manchester United are not a club 'in crisis'.  As a Norwich City fan, I would be delighted to be sixth in the Premier League.  As an (adoptive) Viktoria Plzeň supporter, I would've loved to reach the Last 16 of the Champions' League, instead of going out in the Group Stages.  In the grand scheme of things, Manchester United fans still have it pretty good; getting knocked out of cup competitions and scrapping for mid-table finishes is day-to-day life for the majority of football fans, season after season.

The Suárez Redemption

Liverpool's star striker Luis Suárez is absolutely on fire this season - he has a staggering nineteen goals to his name in the Premier League already this season, and regular viewers of Match Of The Day will know that the manner in which he's scored some of these goals has been truly spectacular.  But that isn't the most impressive thing about Suárez this year...

In previous seasons, I think it's fair to say that Suárez wasn't the most popular character in English football.  No one could deny his talent on the field, and his goal-scoring pedigree was plain for all to see, but his attitude and his demeanour came in for a lot of criticism - and rightly so!

Suárez' actions gained him a reputation for diving and cheating (most notably biting and stamping on other players), and he was perhaps most (in)famously involved in a racism scandal with Patrice Evra of Manchester United.

Over the summer, there were persistent rumours that Suárez would be sold, and that he wanted to leave Liverpool in search of a club where he could win trophies, and qualify for European football.

In the end, though, Suárez stayed at Liverpool, and began the 2013/14 season with the remnants of a ten-match ban for the biting incident still hanging over him.  Since he's been back in action, though, the transformation which I, for once, have seen in him has been remarkable.

The Suárez I have watched on Match Of The Day in recent weeks has the same wonderful skill and mercurial touch as ever - but he seems to have a vastly improved attitude, and a new maturity which is just fantastic to see.  Suárez has scored some amazing goals, but he has also been working hard for his team, he has been very unselfish at times, and he's been making every effort to stay on his feet at times when, in the past, he might have gone down under soft challenges.

Following a recent injury to longtime Liverpool Captain Steven Gerrard, Suárez was asked to Captain his side - many people questioned the judgement of manager Brendan Rodgers in giving the Captaincy to a player with such a chequered past, but having seen Suárez in action on the pitch as Liverpool's Captain I think Rodgers made the right call.  As Captain, Suárez has been authoritative, leading from the front with his performances and his work ethic - but he's also been keen to support and encourage his teammates, especially those who are younger and less experienced, and who are just coming through into the first team.

Thanks in no small part to the influence of Suárez, Liverpool currently sit top of the Premier League. Whilst it's not out-of-the-question that they could win the League this year, I personally think that's unlikely - but a Top Four spot is not, and should Liverpool qualify for the next year's Champions League (as well they might!), they will have Suárez to thank.

If there's one thing we can guarantee in the world of football it's highly entrenched opinions, and there will undoubtedly be people who made up their mind about Suárez during his troubled times and will refuse to change it now - but I think that is unfair on a player who is certainly well on the way to proving many of his critics wrong this year.

Suárez is still the same man accused of racial abuse.  He is the same man who bit another player on the arm during a game.  But he has served his punishment for those (and other) transgressions - and if, as it seems, he has returned to the game as a reformed individual, that is to his credit.

Can Arsenal win the League?

Yes.

I could leave it there, but that hardly seems worth it.

Arsenal can win the Premier League.  Will they?  Well, that remains to be seen - but I don't understand why everyone's been so quick to write them off.

Arsenal suffered a big defeat at the weekend, when they lost 6-3 away to Manchester City on Saturday.  I'm not denying that this is a setback for them, but is that really the big, season-defining moment people seem to think?  I'm not convinced it is.

For a start, Manchester City have been famously impervious on their home ground this season - Arsenal are not the first team to be given a serious hiding at the Etihad Statium, and they certainly won't be the last.  In the end, was it a huge surprise that Manchester City won at home?  No.

But most importantly of all, this was just one game, in a whole season of Premier League football.  In my opinion, so-called 'big games' between so-called 'big teams' are always over-hyped and are never all they're cracked up to be.  Remember that the same number of points are on offer no matter who you're playing; what makes winning this match any more urgent than winning any other game - especially at this point in the season?

Sure, being the first team to beat Manchester City on their home turf would certainly have sent out a strong message, and that would've been a big boost to morale as well - but to suggest that losing this match means Arsenal's title challenge is already over is surely nonsense!

Premier League titles aren't won just because you beat your closest rival (or lost because they beat you); ultimately, it is consistency which shows through, over the course of a full season.  With thirty-eight games to play, it is highly likely that even the strongest teams will probably lose one or two - the team who comes out on top at the end of the year will be the team who's dropped the fewest points overall in that period.  It doesn't matter against whom you get those points - just that you have more than anyone else.

At the moment, Arsenal are the most consistent team in the Premier League; in sixteen League matches so far, Arsenal have lost just three times.  As I said before, it was unsurprising (even expected, perhaps) that Arsenal lost to Manchester City when they travelled to the Etihad - but for me, that doesn't automatically make City the favourites for the title.  The Manchester club may have an impressive unbeaten home record in the League this season - but, unlike Arsenal, they have been shaky on the road, and they have dropped points to several teams lower down the table (losing to Sunderland, Cardiff and Aston Villa, for example, as well as drawing eminently winnable games against Southampton and Stoke).

It may yet prove that Arsenal will falter, all the critics and pundits will proved right and Man. City (or Chelsea?!) will win the Premier League this year.  People might point to this game (or Arsenal's match with Chelsea next week, depending on how that goes for them) as a turning point in the season.  But in the end, winning one game (any game, against anyone) does not win you the League - winning lots of them does.  If Arsenal can carry on doing that, I think they'll be OK.

And, for the record, I hope they do!  Since it now seems unlikely that Norwich City will be Champions come May, I am backing Arsenal to win the Premier League this season - if only to confound and frustrate everyone who seems so completely sure that they can't possibly win it.  They can.

Reading and QPR sale?

With the news that both Queens Park Rangers and Reading have been relegated from the Premier League today, my thoughts have turned to the Summer Transfer Window, and which star players may well be shuffling out of the back door either at Loftus Road or at the Madejski.  I have been trying to decide which current members of the QPR and Royals squads it would be worth having at Norwich next season - and, to be honest, not many spring to mind...

Just to be clear here, I'm talking specifically about which QPR or Reading players would enhance the Norwich City squad - not which players are good enough to play in the Premier League in general.  I know both sides have goalkeeping talent, with both Alex McCarthy for Reading, and Rangers' Júlio César turning heads during this season, but I have faith in Norwich's current 'keepers of John Ruddy and Mark Bunn, so I have little interest in seeing McCarthy or César at Carrow Road next year, even though I think there's a strong chance that both will still be playing in the top flight.

So, who would I want to take from Reading?

Hardly anyone, frankly.  However, considering that most of the problems we (Norwich) have had during this Premier League season have been to do with not being able to score enough goals, I wouldn't mind giving Adam Le Fondre an opportunity at Carrow Road.

And who would I want to take from QPR?

Again, keeping in mind the Canaries' goal dearth during the current season, I'd be more than happy to take Loïc Rémy on - of course, I feel sure that plenty of Premier League clubs (and their fans!) have been eyeing up Rémy for some weeks, and many more illustrious names will be chasing his signature in the summer, but that's not to say I wouldn't be happy to see him wearing yellow next season.  Another QPR player who's caught my eye, though - particularly in the earlier stages of this season - is Jamie Mackie; I don't think Hoops' manager Harry Redknapp has given him a fair chance in the latter part of the season, but I was impressed by him at the start of their campaign, as he struck me as a hard-working, positive thinking footballer with a lot to give.  I think Mackie could be an excellent addition to the current Norwich line-up, and I would be glad to welcome him here.

Premier League with ten games left

With ten games left to play in this Premier League season, I thought I'd take a look at the table as it stands, and try making a few predictions about how things may look for each team by the end of the season.

Will Rooney leave Manchester United?  Can QPR survive the drop?  Who will be in charge at Chelsea next season?  Was Mauricio Pochettino's appointment at Southampton a stroke of genius, or a a moment of madness?  These are the questions to which no one knows the answers - but I am going to answer them anyway.

Manchester United (1st - 71pts from 28 games)

I don't think there's much doubt any more that United look like they'll win the title this year.  (Yes, there will still be a few Manchester City fans saying "it's still possible!" but realistically, I think Sir Alex Ferguson has at least one hand on that trophy already.)

What is interesting, though, are the rumours surrounding the future of star striker Wayne Rooney, following his omission from the starting XI in the Champions' League Semi-Final against Real Madrid earlier in the week.  Newspapers have been reporting that Rooney's days at Old Trafford may be numbered - that he may be moving on to pastures new at the end of the season.  Somehow, though, I can't see it.  I honestly don't think these rumours have any substance, and the decision not to start Rooney against Real Madrid was more likely to be a tactical one than as a result of any issues between Rooney and the club.

Of course, during the transfer window in the Summer, United will attract attention from some of the world's greatest footballers - they always do.  I reckon that Sir Alex will be active in the transfer markets, but not overly so; he'll be looking to strengthen on the squad he has, and build on the hard work they have put in during this year, rather than going for wholesale radical change.

So, that's that.  Manchester United - pretty dull, not much to say, just counting down the days until their next Premier League trophy arrives on the doorstep at Old Trafford.  Let's move on...

Manchester City (2nd - 59pts from 28 games)

While some Manchester City fans still cling desperately to the hope that they can close the gap to neighbours United over the remaining ten games of this season, many of them have already switched their attention to next year.  Apparently, so have the club themselves, as stories persist that they are interested in bringing strikers Radamel Falcao and Edinson Cavani (from Atletico Madrid and Napoli respectively) during the summer, to strengthen the side in readiness for next season.

But is this really the area in which City need strengthening?  They already have the strike pairing of Argentinian duo Sergio Agüero and Carlos Tevez available - Manchester United aside, these two would walk into the starting line-up of any Premier League team.  As ever, these press rumours should be taken with a pinch of salt, and it may well be that City are planning to strengthen in other areas too, but these plans just aren't getting the same media coverage as the pursuit of a couple of high-profile forwards - but if I were in charge at Eastlands, I would be seriously questioning the priorities of a club who have squandered the talents of a team jam-packed full of big-name star players on a very shaky Premier League title defence.

Some while ago, I predicted that Manchester City would finish third this season - behind Manchester United in first place, and Chelsea in second.  I'm no longer sure whether Chelsea will be the team to beat City to the runners-up prize, but as for City in third?  I stand by that prediction.

Tottenham Hotspur (3rd - 54pts from 28 games)

Nipping at the heels of the defending champions in third place are this season's surprise package - the mighty Spurs.  Whilst all the talk has been about Tottenham's Welsh wizard Gareth Bale, Spurs are by no means a one-man-team, as some detractors have suggested.  I have been very impressed by the whole side during this season, and as well as being a constant presence at the top end of the Premier League table, they have been on a decent run in the UEFA Europa League - a run which is far from over, as they lead Inter Milan 3-0 on aggregate, going into the second leg of their Last 16 tie.

To me, Spurs look set to complete their Top 4 finish this season, and the promise of a Champions League challenge next year will help them to hold on to the key players in their squad.  It only remains to be seen where in the Top 4 they will end up - and the more I see of them, the more I think they may just sneak second place away from Manchester City.

There have been question marks recently over what will become of Bale, and this worries me hugely - not just for Spurs' sake, but for Bale himself.  The rumours du jour suggest Bale may move overseas, having caught the eye of Spanish giants Barcelona and Real Madrid.  Although, on the face of it, this may seem like a huge opportunity for a boy from Cardiff, I have a really bad feeling about it all...

Bale going to a big club in Spain seems like one of these big-money, over-hyped moves surrounded by an enormous media circus, which will end in a player ultimately being a flop at his new club.  (Think Robbie Keane going to Liverpool a few years back...)

In my opinion, Bale would be so much better staying at White Hart Lane - the team there all know him, the setup suits him, and he's playing great football every week.  Spurs under André Villas-Boas don't look like a flash-in-the-pan team - they are building something much more enduring and stable, and fast becoming a club who will be challenging right at the top of the Premier League for some years.  If I were Gareth Bale, I would want to be a part of that.

Chelsea (4th - 52pts from 28 games)

Ahh, we can we say about Chelsea?  Lots.

The manager-go-round is still spinning wildly - and, I'll be honest, I have no idea who may be the next to take a ride.  I think everyone knows that Rafa Benítez isn't going to last long; the fans hate him, and he hates them (although, to be honest, I thought he had a point when he went off on a rant about fans a couple of weeks back) and his results with Chelsea haven't been good enough to overshadow this fractious relationship.

The problem is not with Benitez - the problem is with what Chelsea are going to do post-Benítez.  Who else is going to want to manage Chelsea now?!  I can't see any top-level managers wanting that job.

Although I think Chelsea will still finish in the Top 4, their form has been so shaky of late it's difficult to say where.  It's still possible for them to come second - but it's just as likely that they will stay where they are in fourth.

As for after this season...  Well, with the managerial position shrouded in so much mystery, it's difficult to say really what might happen - but they need to change something up front, for sure; the Chelsea squad has a lot of talent in it, but if they don't recall Romelu Lukaku from West Brom, sell Fernando Torres, and start building a meaningful strike partnership between Lukaku and Demba Ba, then they need to have a serious rethink about their decision making process!

Arsenal (5th - 47pts from 28 games)

I think fifth is about where Arsenal deserve to be this season.  When I look at the teams above them, I can't see any which don't have a better squad than Arsenal have.

Arsenal have some really top-quality players (Santi Cazorla, Theo Walcott, Jack Wilshere, Lukas Podolski) but they also have huge defensive problems, and a habit of selling off their key players every summer.

The perennial "Wenger out! / Wenger in!" debate is still there, bubbling beneath the surface, always ready to erupt whenever Arsenal have a bad day at the office.  For my part, I reckon Arsenal fans who are calling for their manager's head need to give Arsène Wenger more time - yes, it looks like their streak without a trophy is continuing for now, but their situation really isn't as dire as some fans seem to think it is.  Fifth in the Premier League, and reaching the last 16 of the Champions League is a position for which most clubs would give anything they had.

There are reports that Wenger has vast sums of money available to him, and that Arsenal will be spending big on signings this summer.  I really hope they do, as it's just what the club needs - but, to be perfectly honest, I'll believe it when I see it.  That's never been Wenger's way before, and I can't see him changing now.  Nevertheless, Arsenal fans - how about seeing what he can make of this squad next season, before you drag out Madame La Guillotine...?

Everton (6th - 45pts from 28 games)

Everton fans seem unhappy at the moment - after a bright start to the season, things have faltered a little, and Everton find themselves outside the Top 4, with their chances of joining that select little band of clubs diminishing almost by the day.  The fans are frustrated by their team throwing away apparently comfortable leads in so many games, but equally so by manager David Moyes' refusal to state whether or not he will sign a new contract this summer, and the possibility of star players like Marouane Fellaini leaving the club.

Controversially, though, I think this may well be exactly Everton Football Club needs.  This shake-up could be what ultimately what pulls Everton out of their long-standing rut of being a might-have-been club.  Expect a change of manager this summer, bringing several new signings to strengthen the team, and a big change in attitude and playing style for next season - culminating in qualification for European football.

Liverpool (7th - 42pts from 28 games)

Liverpool fans will say that Liverpool have under-performed this season - but if you look objectively at the quality they've got, I reckon towards the bottom of the top half of the table is about where they should be.  I actually think they will drop another place to Swansea, and finish this season eight in the table.  The little Uruguayan magician Luis Suárez has really carried the team for a large part of this season - despite some high-profile signings during the winter, in the form of Daniel Sturridge (from Chelsea) and Philippe Coutinho (from Internazionale), I still feel as thought Liverpool this season are all about Suárez.

So...  Can they keep him?  Will Suárez really stay at Liverpool for next season, in spite of a rather mediocre Premier League placing, no trophies and no European football?  Even though it doesn't quite make sense, my instinct says yes - Suárez will stay.  But they will need to attract more players of Suárez' quality to Anfield over the summer, if they want to improve on this season's performances next year.  The club will give Brendan Rodgers one more year as manager, and if things don't improve (read, Top 4 finish) then, they will sack him and get someone else.  (Possibly even a return for Rafa Benítez, following his sacking from Chelsea?!  Well, that really would be something...)

Swansea (8th - 40pts from 28 games)

It's hard to think of anyone with even an ounce of passion for football not getting caught up in the romance of the Swansea story.  From being a League Two team as recently as 2004, Swansea have climbed the footballing ladder to become an established Premier League club, and went on to win the Capital One Cup at Wembley Stadium just a couple of weeks ago.

As a Norwich City fan, I still look back to the 2010-11 Championship season when Norwich finished second in the Championship, ahead of Swansea in third - Norwich won automatic promotion, whilst Swansea had to do it the hard way, through the play-offs.  But from then on, Swansea have been the darling new club on the block, not us.

Neverthless, I have a lot of admiration for what Swansea have achieved, and for the way they have handled themselves in the Premier League.  The appointment of Michael Laudrup as manager, following Brendan Rodgers' departure at the end of last season, was a masterstroke - as was the signing of prolific Spanish striker Michu for a bargain £2m.  Swansea are currently flying high, on the back of their Cup Final victory, and winning three of their last four Premier League matches - I predict them to take this confidence into the remainder of the season, and climb another place to finish ahead of Liverpool in seventh place.

Swansea already have a spot in next year's Europa League competition secured, thanks to their Capital One Cup success, and I predict they will keep climbing higher and higher during next season.  European football and a seventh place Premier League finish will make them an attractive destination for good-quality players during the summer this year, allowing them to go from strength to strength; soon enough, Swansea City will be a Premier League force to be reckoned with!

West Brom (9th - 40pts from 28 games)

Sitting behind Swansea in the Premier League only on goal difference, West Brom are another club enjoying a great season, during manager Steve Clarke's first year in charge.  After a hugely impressive start (at one point sitting comfortably in the Top 5 of the Premier League), they have faltered a little, but still sit in the top of the table - which is, I think, where they will stay.

West Brom's future is a concern, though.  They look likely to lose on-loan striker Romelu Lukaku, whose parent club Chelsea would be utterly mad not to recall him for next year, and I can't imagine Peter Odemwingie sticking around in the summer, following the palaver surrounding his ill-fated attempt to join QPR on Deadline Day in January.  Losing so much power up-front means West Brom need to act quickly to replenish their forward players, or they may not enjoy quite such an illustrious season next year.

Fulham (10th - 33pts from 28 games)

Despite regularly being described as "struggling" throughout this season, Fulham still manage to squeeze into the top half of Premier League table.  They are one of three teams currently sitting on a total of thirty-three points - that they are the top of that particular little group on goal difference is due mainly to their star player Dimitar Berbatov.  The same could be said of their presence in the top half of the table at all, with the rest of their team failing to excite me particularly during this season.

Again, the question of whether Fulham can keep hold of the player who makes them tick raises its ugly head - in this case, I suspect so.  Berbatov is 32-years-old now, and I think he will stay will Fulham for the time being, meaning that their season next year will be pretty similar to this year's, unless manager Martin Jol makes any sweeping changes to the squad during the summer.

Stoke (11th - 33pts from 28 games)

Stoke are Stoke.  Impenetrable at home, less so away, playing rough-and-ready football but quietly getting the job done.  I can't really see Tony Pulis Stoke-ing the flames with any big-name signings over the summer, so I predict more of the same for next season.

West Ham (12th - 33pts from 28 games)

12th place in the Premier League in your first season after promotion from the Championship is a great result for West Ham, and shows what a good job manager Sam Allardyce is doing with his rather down-to-earth squad.  I reckon West Ham will stay around here - and, although Allardyce isn't always loved by the fans, I think the club would be mad to get rid of him after this season's results.

Norwich (13th - 32pts from 28 games)

Norwich.  The best team in the League.  How we're so far down the table is utterly bewildering.

I'm joking, of course.  But I do think Norwich have done much better this season than some commentators might give us credit for - particularly after the turbulence last summer of losing Paul Lambert as manager to Aston Villa, and having such a shaky start to the season.

Before Christmas, a streak of ten games without losing was the best unbeaten run by any team in Europe with the exception of Barcelona, and after a torrid festive period, results are looking up again now, with one win capable of taking Norwich into the top half of the table.

Which brings me to this...  This little group of four mid-table teams (Fulham, Stoke, West Ham and Norwich) are now, effectively, racing each other; all four teams are within one point of each other, but seven points behind West Brom in ninth place - and, at this stage of the season, that's a lot.  Basically, one of these four will claim the final spot in the top half of the table.  I hope it's Norwich.

In the summer, we need to bring it another striker, and an attacking midfielder with a creative spark.  It was disappointing not to be able to get Gary Hooper from Celtic in January, so something similar in the summer, but with more success, is what's required to keep progressing into next season.

Sunderland (14th - 30pts from 28 games)

Sunderland have been misfiring all season, but I think they're going to come good in the last ten games and comfortably avoid the drop.  I doubt they'll finish much higher than their current fourteenth place, to be honest, but I can't see them getting dragged into a relegation battle either.  Their draw with Fulham last weekend was crucial - it was a very gritty, steely performance, to come back form 2-0 down to claim a point, and if they can keep doing that, they'll be fine.

They desperately need to tighten up over the summer, though, and fill in some of the holes in their squad - particularly in midfield.

Newcastle (15th - 30pts from 28 games)

Beset by injuries and bad luck early on in the season, Newcastle are a team performing well below where they perhaps ought to be.  Like Sunderland, they'll finish around the middle of the bottom half of the table - not really a fair reflection on the quality of their squad, to be honest, but at least they won't be in danger of relegation either.

A better start to the season next year should see them back into the top half of the season where they belong, which should help manager Alan Pardew start to look less grizzled in his television interviews.

Southampton (16th - 27pts from 28 games)

Southampton are my girlfriend's team, and as such I am duty bound to support them (unless they're playing Norwich).  Even without this obligation, though, I would be keen to see Southampton stay up in the Premier League this year - they are an interesting and exciting team to watch, and I think they bring a lot to the League.

The Saints started well under their new manager Mauricio Pochettino, following the controversial sacking of Nigel Adkins in January.  A great win over defending champions Manchester City will certainly rank as a high point of their season, and it was sad to see that this didn't continue, as they were (perhaps a little unfairly) beaten by bottom-of-the-table QPR not long after.

I think the Saints will survive - but only just.  If they can get back to playing the way they did in their first few games under Pochettino, they should be fine.

In the summer, however, they need to make a priority of sorting out their problems at the back.  Southampton have no issues with going forward, and scoring goals - but too many defensive and goalkeeping errors have cost them points this season, and that needs to change if they want to build a long-term future in the Premier League.

Wigan (17th - 24pts from 28 games)

Wigan really irritate me, if I'm honest.  It's nothing to do with the club or the players, or even the fans - it's to do with the way football writers and pundits talk about them.  Even if Wigan only had four points at this stage of the season, not twenty-four, footballing "experts" like the BBC's Mark Lawrenson would still be predicting them to avoid relegation, because "they do it every year".

There is an expectation that Wigan will be fine, because they always do something of an escape act in the final third of the season.  In my opinion, this is a bridge too far for them, and the consequences of their slow-to-start ways will finally catch up with them.  They will be relegated at the end of this season.

Aston Villa (18th - 24pts from 28 games)

I guess former Norwich City manager Paul Lambert is discovering that the grass is not always greener on the other side...

With the exception of big Belgian forward Christian Benteke (who has impressed everyone so far this year - and rightfully so), goalkeeper Brad Guzan, and occasional flashes of brilliance from young Austrian player Andreas Weimann, Villa have not really looked like a Premier League team this year.  They will be relegated at the end of this season.

Reading (19th - 23pts from 28 games)

Although currently second-from-bottom, Reading are only one win away from safety in this position.  The situation may look worrying at the moment, but something about Reading this year tells me they may just have the steel to do it this year.  The Royals look like they have more team spirit than Aston Villa above them, and they have pulled off several remarkable come-backs to win against all the odds this year - I think one more comeback may just be on the cards, here.

But like Southampton, things need to change for them before next season - another year of relying on miraculous comebacks to scrape together enough points to avoid relegation will just about kill them.  They need a backbone of good central defenders and central midfielders to stiffen up their shape on the field, and they need to make fewer mistakes in general.

QPR (20th - 20pts from 28 games)

After a truly horrendous season in the Premier League, QPR are certain to go down.  And I'm really sorry, QPR fans - but I, for one, won't be too cut up about that.

Manager Harry Redknapp will leave, after failing to keep Rangers up, and the fans will once again be asking questions.  The best thing QPR could do then would be to get in someone like (ex-Southampton manager) Nigel Adkins, and start again from scratch, building a new team ethic, and working towards making something much more lasting than a quick-fix of throwing money at it, but somehow I just don't think that is owner Tony Fernandes' way.

QPR will be relegated this season.  They will challenge for promotion in the Championship next season, but if they get it, they will struggle just as much in the Premier League during the season after as they have done this year.

Thank you

If you've read all of this - I really appreciate that.  Please feel free to comment, tell me I'm hopeless wrong, tell me that your team still has every chance of making up twenty points over the last ten games to claim the title, or whatever.  I've never claimed to be an expert, and I know I'm just speculating.

One thing's for sure, though - I can't wait to see what will actually happen, as the season draws to a close!