Does Mark Lawrenson even watch the Premier League?

BBC Sport football pundit Mark Lawrenson writes his predictions for the weekend's Premier League matches each week on the BBC Sport website.  Or so we're told, anyway.  I'm beginning to suspect that he actually has a machine – working to some shonky algorithm, of course – churning them out for him, so he can collect a nice pay packet without actually having to do any work.

I doubt that Lawrenson has any idea who half the teams he's supposed to be writing about actually are.  That is the only explanation for how bizarre his predictions seem to be at times.

For my team, Norwich City, he consistently predicts losses.  Whether we're playing well, or playing badly, have injuries or a full squad, make signings or not – his reasoning seems to be simply "it's Norwich, so they'll lose".  We could have Messi and Ronaldo both playing for us, and Lawrenson would still tip us to lose 1-0 to West Brom (or something), just because it's Norwich.

Which is ridiculous.  Lawrenson's prediction for Sunday's away match is that Norwich will lose to Southampton.  This is in spite of the fact that Southampton are yet to win a league game this season, whilst Norwich have, and almost all football analysts seem to agree that although four points from the opening three games is a decent haul for the Canaries, we could – and quite possibly should – have more.

Lawrenson says so himself, in his writing for this week's predictions, as well as alluding to Southampton's slow start and also mentioning that they will be fatigued from a midweek game in the Europa League.

Sure, a team who 'have not really got going yet' are
bound to beat a team who 'have looked pretty
solid' so far…  There's no flaw in this reasoning! 

And yet, in spite of all the evidence he himself has presented to the contrary, he predicts Southampton to win 2-1.  Maybe they will.  Who knows?  But the pre-match form of both teams, and their differing circumstances, do not suggest that.

Lawrenson seems to work only from the reputation a team has in his own mind.  Southampton are generally perceived to be a club 'on the up', with a growing reputation – whilst Norwich would be considered minnows in this league even if they won it three seasons on the trot.

Thankfully, it's what happens on the pitch which counts, not what happens in Mark Lawrenson's mind.

A pointless prediction, and a non-endorsement

It's today.  The General Election.  It has come, and we still have no clue about what will actually happen.  Tomorrow, I can go back to writing about Formula 1 and sandwiches.  But for now, having done absolutely no polling and no research into it, here is what I think – based purely on hunches and guesswork – will happen.

There will be a hung parliament.  That much is pretty obvious.

The Conservatives will be the largest party, but have no overall majority.  As the incumbent Prime Minister, David Cameron will attempt to form a second coalition government with the Liberal Democrats, who will spurn him.  (Obviously, that will be a very stupid move – what is the point of being in politics at all, and standing for election, if you turn down the chance to govern when it's offered you? – but that is what I think will happen; the Lib Dem membership will feel that their support suffered too much from the first coalition to risk it a second time.)

Cameron will then try to 'go it alone' heading a minority administration, surviving each Commons vote as it comes, shored up by MPs from minority parties who will go along with certain issues in return for concessions in other areas – but this will soon crumble, and Cameron won't be able to survive a vote of no confidence.  Within two months, there will be a second election called – and we will get to do this all over again!

I'm probably way off the mark here.  But what can you do, eh?!  Whatever happens, I just hope that we have a government by Saturday morning; I want all this out of the way by Saturday so that I am free to focus on the really serious stuff – Norwich City's Play-Off Semi-Final first leg against Ipswich.

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On another note, I am not going to do an endorsement of any party on this Blog.  That's partly because I only get about six readers anyway, so it wouldn't make any difference, and partly because I don't feel I am in any position to tell anybody else how to vote.  However, I will say that however you vote, I implore you to do so for the 'right' reasons.

If you want to vote Labour because you like their policies, or you like their local candidate, that's fine; voting Labour to 'send a message' to Rupert Murdoch, or because Katie Hopkins quipped she would 'leave the country', is stupid.  Similarly, if you prefer another party over the Lib Dems, that's your call; if you would've voted Lib Dem but feel 'betrayed' by Nick Clegg, I have already explained how wrong-headed that is.

Please don't choose who to vote for out of spite.  Please don't vote for a party or candidate because Russell Brand told you to.  You don't have to listen to anybody else; you don't have to be ashamed of how you vote; you don't have to do what your friends, or family, or shouty Facebook acquaintances who share endless pictures of politicians' faces with made-up quotes from/about them superimposed onto the image in bold text, do.  You don't have to take any notice of what the press say.  You don't even have to take any notice of Bloggers like me (although I strongly suggest that you do).

Vote for whoever you honestly believe to be the best candidate in your area, or the best party nationally.  But vote with your head, and in good faith.  Good luck.

The political Richter Scale

UKIP are keen to tell us that there is a 'political earthquake' underway.  That the party is gathering momentum is not in doubt – but is it really an 'earthquake'?  No.

Last night saw Mark Reckless (re)elected as the MP for Rochester Strood, to become the second MP to be elected under the UKIP name.  His majority of close to three thousand over the Conservatives was comfortable, but not insurmountable for the Tories at a General Election, where polls show voters do tend to approach things slightly differently.  Nevertheless, it was a good victory for UKIP and they are quite understandably celebrating the result.

However, I don't believe this result is quite as momentous as the UKIP types on the news and on social media would have us believe.  Sure, it's a good result for them – but how earth-shattering really is it?

As in last month's by-election in Clacton, UKIP's candidate was a defector to the party from the Conservatives, and the incumbent MP in that seat.  Incumbency brings with it certain benefits, and when we look at other recent by-elections in Heywood & Middleton and in Newark – where UKIP have not been 'helped along' by the defection of a local MP already known to the people in the constituency – UKIP have polled fairly well, but not won the seat.  Really winning a seat is a different proposition from holding a seat (even under different party colours), and that is something UKIP are still yet to do.

the people of #RochesterAndStrood have spoken. They have said: “we told you before that we wanted this guy, why are you asking us again?!”

— Kit Marsden (@manek43509) November 21, 2014

What is certain, though, is that the General Election next year is looking set to be very interesting indeed!  It will be fascinating to see how UKIP fare with their 'homegrown' (for want of a better word) candidates – those dyed-in-the-wool 'Kippers who haven't crossed over from another party, taking with them a certain level of local support and a preexisting record of achievement in parliament which they can use on the campaign trail.

Personally, I think it's quite unlikely that we'll see any further defections to UKIP before the General Election.  So, when we come to May next year, UKIP candidates will stand or fall on their own merits – and although the party is on the rise, I don't think we will see the huge numbers of UKIP MPs some of their activists are hoping for.

My personal feeling is that they'll be extremely lucky to get into double figures with the number of seats they win.  That's a tremor, but is it truly an earthquake?  Not really.

#WorldCup knockouts

With the sixteen best teams of the tournament so far moving into the knockout stages of the World Cup, things are getting pretty interesting now.  So, which team is going to go the furthest?  Here are my thoughts on who to watch…

I sadly wasn't able to watch every single group match (with the kickoff times being in the evenings, I've often found I'm working when the games begin), but I have seen as many as I possibly can, and tried to catch up on other matches later, either by recording them or watching online.  The four sides which impressed me the most during the group stages were: Germany, Chile, France and the Netherlands.

Germany have been tipped to go far in this competition already.  They have a wealth of talent in all areas of the pitch, and some very technically gifted players; the one area in which they might be said to be lacking is in central attack, often lining up without a bona fide centre forward - but in veteran striker Miroslav Klose, they have a forward player already proven time and time again at the highest level available to bring on, should they need him.

The Germans' dismantling of Portugal 4-0 in their opening group game was a statement of intent from them, and they definitely have the quality in their squad to back that up.

Chile are maybe not the team that springs immediately to mind when one thinks of South American football, but they have been hugely impressive throughout their World Cup campaign so far.  The Chileans play an intensely high-tempo style of football with passion and fervour - current world Champions Spain looked worn out and punch-drunk after barely half-an-hour in their recent game against Chile, playing with an air of wearied resignation instead of their usual incisive passing game.

Tirelessly hardworking, Chile look utterly fearless both with and within the ball, refusing to be intimidated even by such illustrious opponents as Spain - but they have real quality, too.  Barcelona forward Alexis Sánchez is always a threat in front of goal, whilst Eduardo Vargas' goal against Spain to put Chile 1-0 up has, for me, been one of the highlights of the entire tournament, so far.  A Round Of 16 clash against hosts Brazil this afternoon will be a stern test, but I don't expect Chile to be daunted by this prospect at all.

France are an unusual choice, perhaps.  They may have had a relatively 'easy' group out of which to get, but they way they have set about that has left no one in any doubt that this is a squad who can really play.  I think lots of people wondered how they would fare without star midfielders Franck Ribery of Bayern Munich (injured before the World Cup) and Manchester City's Samir Nasri (controversially left out by manager Didier Deschamps), but the French have really gelled as a team, and look very much at ease on the ball, working as a single unit to cut teams open as they push forward.

In Karim Benzema and Olivier Giroud, France have strong attacking talent in their squad, and with players like Mathieu Valbueno and Yohan Cabaye in midfield, they won't be short of service either.  I don't think France are anybody's favourite to win the tournament, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them reach the semi-finals, and their relatively young squad will undoubtedly be a force to reckon with in years to come.

Having provided the first (and still, so far, the largest) upset of this World Cup in coming from behind to beat holders Spain 5-1, the Netherlands established themselves as the tournament's official "dark horses" pretty early on.  Their fast, counter-attacking style of play has been hugely effective for them - but they've also shown themselves capable of hunting down a game when they go behind, and having the resilience to get themselves back into contention.

In Arjen Robben, the Dutch have a very special player indeed - someone with pace and technique, but also with the intuition and awareness of the game to be able to create something out of nothing.  Robben seems able to find space where there seemingly is none, and when the ball falls to him in the box, you feel something exciting is bound to happen.  A Round Of 16 match against Mexico is no easy task, but I expect the Netherlands to rise to the challenge, as they have done each time so far.

So, is the overall winner of this World Cup going to be one of these four teams, then?  Well, they all have a chance, for sure…  But, as is so often the way, things aren't quite that simple!

Plenty of discussion in the run up to this tournament centred around the fact that European teams don't win World Cups held in South America - and yet, three of the four teams I have picked are European sides!  Something doesn't add up here.  Well, whilst they may not have stunned us to quite the same extent during the group matches, only a fool would write off South American giants Brazil and Argentina at this juncture.

Brazil have world-famous footballing pedigree, and plenty of talent in their squad - including Barcelona forward Neymar, and Paris Saint-Germain defender Thiago Silva.  Perhaps even more significantly, though, they are playing on their home turf, in the universally recognised home of football, in front of their own adoring fans.  You can never discount Brazil, and even if they may not have the same strength of squad as, say, Germany, they are still an extremely good side - and spurred on by a passionate and exuberant home crowd, you can't say it would exactly be a surprise to see them still there or thereabouts as we move towards the business end of the tournament.

Argentina are another South American team with a proud history - but also another who didn't exactly set the world alight during their group games.  In their opening game against Bosnia and Herzegovina, had it not been for a very unfortunate Bosnian own-goal in the opening few minutes of the game, the first half would've been entirely dominated by the Bosnians, with Argentina on the ropes for large spells of the play.

However, Argentina can always rely on the truly remarkable Lionel Messi to dig them out of a hole - as he has done already, on a couple of occasions.  The rest of the Argentinian squad are hardly Sunday League players, but so far it has only Messi been who's really shone at this tournament; his mercurial touch may well be the difference for Argentina this time around - and like Brazil, it will hardly be surprising to see them progressing further and further through the World Cup.

So, there we have it.  Based on what I have seen so far, it is my belief that the winners of the 2014 World Cup will come from one of the six teams I have listed above.  However, these are purely my own thoughts and feelings about the matches I have watched, and should not be taken as anything more; please don't remortgage your house in order to place the entire value as a bet on one of these teams, just because of what I have written!  I can take no responsibility for any losses incurred as a consequence of such folly.

Premier League with ten games left

With ten games left to play in this Premier League season, I thought I'd take a look at the table as it stands, and try making a few predictions about how things may look for each team by the end of the season.

Will Rooney leave Manchester United?  Can QPR survive the drop?  Who will be in charge at Chelsea next season?  Was Mauricio Pochettino's appointment at Southampton a stroke of genius, or a a moment of madness?  These are the questions to which no one knows the answers - but I am going to answer them anyway.

Manchester United (1st - 71pts from 28 games)

I don't think there's much doubt any more that United look like they'll win the title this year.  (Yes, there will still be a few Manchester City fans saying "it's still possible!" but realistically, I think Sir Alex Ferguson has at least one hand on that trophy already.)

What is interesting, though, are the rumours surrounding the future of star striker Wayne Rooney, following his omission from the starting XI in the Champions' League Semi-Final against Real Madrid earlier in the week.  Newspapers have been reporting that Rooney's days at Old Trafford may be numbered - that he may be moving on to pastures new at the end of the season.  Somehow, though, I can't see it.  I honestly don't think these rumours have any substance, and the decision not to start Rooney against Real Madrid was more likely to be a tactical one than as a result of any issues between Rooney and the club.

Of course, during the transfer window in the Summer, United will attract attention from some of the world's greatest footballers - they always do.  I reckon that Sir Alex will be active in the transfer markets, but not overly so; he'll be looking to strengthen on the squad he has, and build on the hard work they have put in during this year, rather than going for wholesale radical change.

So, that's that.  Manchester United - pretty dull, not much to say, just counting down the days until their next Premier League trophy arrives on the doorstep at Old Trafford.  Let's move on...

Manchester City (2nd - 59pts from 28 games)

While some Manchester City fans still cling desperately to the hope that they can close the gap to neighbours United over the remaining ten games of this season, many of them have already switched their attention to next year.  Apparently, so have the club themselves, as stories persist that they are interested in bringing strikers Radamel Falcao and Edinson Cavani (from Atletico Madrid and Napoli respectively) during the summer, to strengthen the side in readiness for next season.

But is this really the area in which City need strengthening?  They already have the strike pairing of Argentinian duo Sergio Agüero and Carlos Tevez available - Manchester United aside, these two would walk into the starting line-up of any Premier League team.  As ever, these press rumours should be taken with a pinch of salt, and it may well be that City are planning to strengthen in other areas too, but these plans just aren't getting the same media coverage as the pursuit of a couple of high-profile forwards - but if I were in charge at Eastlands, I would be seriously questioning the priorities of a club who have squandered the talents of a team jam-packed full of big-name star players on a very shaky Premier League title defence.

Some while ago, I predicted that Manchester City would finish third this season - behind Manchester United in first place, and Chelsea in second.  I'm no longer sure whether Chelsea will be the team to beat City to the runners-up prize, but as for City in third?  I stand by that prediction.

Tottenham Hotspur (3rd - 54pts from 28 games)

Nipping at the heels of the defending champions in third place are this season's surprise package - the mighty Spurs.  Whilst all the talk has been about Tottenham's Welsh wizard Gareth Bale, Spurs are by no means a one-man-team, as some detractors have suggested.  I have been very impressed by the whole side during this season, and as well as being a constant presence at the top end of the Premier League table, they have been on a decent run in the UEFA Europa League - a run which is far from over, as they lead Inter Milan 3-0 on aggregate, going into the second leg of their Last 16 tie.

To me, Spurs look set to complete their Top 4 finish this season, and the promise of a Champions League challenge next year will help them to hold on to the key players in their squad.  It only remains to be seen where in the Top 4 they will end up - and the more I see of them, the more I think they may just sneak second place away from Manchester City.

There have been question marks recently over what will become of Bale, and this worries me hugely - not just for Spurs' sake, but for Bale himself.  The rumours du jour suggest Bale may move overseas, having caught the eye of Spanish giants Barcelona and Real Madrid.  Although, on the face of it, this may seem like a huge opportunity for a boy from Cardiff, I have a really bad feeling about it all...

Bale going to a big club in Spain seems like one of these big-money, over-hyped moves surrounded by an enormous media circus, which will end in a player ultimately being a flop at his new club.  (Think Robbie Keane going to Liverpool a few years back...)

In my opinion, Bale would be so much better staying at White Hart Lane - the team there all know him, the setup suits him, and he's playing great football every week.  Spurs under André Villas-Boas don't look like a flash-in-the-pan team - they are building something much more enduring and stable, and fast becoming a club who will be challenging right at the top of the Premier League for some years.  If I were Gareth Bale, I would want to be a part of that.

Chelsea (4th - 52pts from 28 games)

Ahh, we can we say about Chelsea?  Lots.

The manager-go-round is still spinning wildly - and, I'll be honest, I have no idea who may be the next to take a ride.  I think everyone knows that Rafa Benítez isn't going to last long; the fans hate him, and he hates them (although, to be honest, I thought he had a point when he went off on a rant about fans a couple of weeks back) and his results with Chelsea haven't been good enough to overshadow this fractious relationship.

The problem is not with Benitez - the problem is with what Chelsea are going to do post-Benítez.  Who else is going to want to manage Chelsea now?!  I can't see any top-level managers wanting that job.

Although I think Chelsea will still finish in the Top 4, their form has been so shaky of late it's difficult to say where.  It's still possible for them to come second - but it's just as likely that they will stay where they are in fourth.

As for after this season...  Well, with the managerial position shrouded in so much mystery, it's difficult to say really what might happen - but they need to change something up front, for sure; the Chelsea squad has a lot of talent in it, but if they don't recall Romelu Lukaku from West Brom, sell Fernando Torres, and start building a meaningful strike partnership between Lukaku and Demba Ba, then they need to have a serious rethink about their decision making process!

Arsenal (5th - 47pts from 28 games)

I think fifth is about where Arsenal deserve to be this season.  When I look at the teams above them, I can't see any which don't have a better squad than Arsenal have.

Arsenal have some really top-quality players (Santi Cazorla, Theo Walcott, Jack Wilshere, Lukas Podolski) but they also have huge defensive problems, and a habit of selling off their key players every summer.

The perennial "Wenger out! / Wenger in!" debate is still there, bubbling beneath the surface, always ready to erupt whenever Arsenal have a bad day at the office.  For my part, I reckon Arsenal fans who are calling for their manager's head need to give Arsène Wenger more time - yes, it looks like their streak without a trophy is continuing for now, but their situation really isn't as dire as some fans seem to think it is.  Fifth in the Premier League, and reaching the last 16 of the Champions League is a position for which most clubs would give anything they had.

There are reports that Wenger has vast sums of money available to him, and that Arsenal will be spending big on signings this summer.  I really hope they do, as it's just what the club needs - but, to be perfectly honest, I'll believe it when I see it.  That's never been Wenger's way before, and I can't see him changing now.  Nevertheless, Arsenal fans - how about seeing what he can make of this squad next season, before you drag out Madame La Guillotine...?

Everton (6th - 45pts from 28 games)

Everton fans seem unhappy at the moment - after a bright start to the season, things have faltered a little, and Everton find themselves outside the Top 4, with their chances of joining that select little band of clubs diminishing almost by the day.  The fans are frustrated by their team throwing away apparently comfortable leads in so many games, but equally so by manager David Moyes' refusal to state whether or not he will sign a new contract this summer, and the possibility of star players like Marouane Fellaini leaving the club.

Controversially, though, I think this may well be exactly Everton Football Club needs.  This shake-up could be what ultimately what pulls Everton out of their long-standing rut of being a might-have-been club.  Expect a change of manager this summer, bringing several new signings to strengthen the team, and a big change in attitude and playing style for next season - culminating in qualification for European football.

Liverpool (7th - 42pts from 28 games)

Liverpool fans will say that Liverpool have under-performed this season - but if you look objectively at the quality they've got, I reckon towards the bottom of the top half of the table is about where they should be.  I actually think they will drop another place to Swansea, and finish this season eight in the table.  The little Uruguayan magician Luis Suárez has really carried the team for a large part of this season - despite some high-profile signings during the winter, in the form of Daniel Sturridge (from Chelsea) and Philippe Coutinho (from Internazionale), I still feel as thought Liverpool this season are all about Suárez.

So...  Can they keep him?  Will Suárez really stay at Liverpool for next season, in spite of a rather mediocre Premier League placing, no trophies and no European football?  Even though it doesn't quite make sense, my instinct says yes - Suárez will stay.  But they will need to attract more players of Suárez' quality to Anfield over the summer, if they want to improve on this season's performances next year.  The club will give Brendan Rodgers one more year as manager, and if things don't improve (read, Top 4 finish) then, they will sack him and get someone else.  (Possibly even a return for Rafa Benítez, following his sacking from Chelsea?!  Well, that really would be something...)

Swansea (8th - 40pts from 28 games)

It's hard to think of anyone with even an ounce of passion for football not getting caught up in the romance of the Swansea story.  From being a League Two team as recently as 2004, Swansea have climbed the footballing ladder to become an established Premier League club, and went on to win the Capital One Cup at Wembley Stadium just a couple of weeks ago.

As a Norwich City fan, I still look back to the 2010-11 Championship season when Norwich finished second in the Championship, ahead of Swansea in third - Norwich won automatic promotion, whilst Swansea had to do it the hard way, through the play-offs.  But from then on, Swansea have been the darling new club on the block, not us.

Neverthless, I have a lot of admiration for what Swansea have achieved, and for the way they have handled themselves in the Premier League.  The appointment of Michael Laudrup as manager, following Brendan Rodgers' departure at the end of last season, was a masterstroke - as was the signing of prolific Spanish striker Michu for a bargain £2m.  Swansea are currently flying high, on the back of their Cup Final victory, and winning three of their last four Premier League matches - I predict them to take this confidence into the remainder of the season, and climb another place to finish ahead of Liverpool in seventh place.

Swansea already have a spot in next year's Europa League competition secured, thanks to their Capital One Cup success, and I predict they will keep climbing higher and higher during next season.  European football and a seventh place Premier League finish will make them an attractive destination for good-quality players during the summer this year, allowing them to go from strength to strength; soon enough, Swansea City will be a Premier League force to be reckoned with!

West Brom (9th - 40pts from 28 games)

Sitting behind Swansea in the Premier League only on goal difference, West Brom are another club enjoying a great season, during manager Steve Clarke's first year in charge.  After a hugely impressive start (at one point sitting comfortably in the Top 5 of the Premier League), they have faltered a little, but still sit in the top of the table - which is, I think, where they will stay.

West Brom's future is a concern, though.  They look likely to lose on-loan striker Romelu Lukaku, whose parent club Chelsea would be utterly mad not to recall him for next year, and I can't imagine Peter Odemwingie sticking around in the summer, following the palaver surrounding his ill-fated attempt to join QPR on Deadline Day in January.  Losing so much power up-front means West Brom need to act quickly to replenish their forward players, or they may not enjoy quite such an illustrious season next year.

Fulham (10th - 33pts from 28 games)

Despite regularly being described as "struggling" throughout this season, Fulham still manage to squeeze into the top half of Premier League table.  They are one of three teams currently sitting on a total of thirty-three points - that they are the top of that particular little group on goal difference is due mainly to their star player Dimitar Berbatov.  The same could be said of their presence in the top half of the table at all, with the rest of their team failing to excite me particularly during this season.

Again, the question of whether Fulham can keep hold of the player who makes them tick raises its ugly head - in this case, I suspect so.  Berbatov is 32-years-old now, and I think he will stay will Fulham for the time being, meaning that their season next year will be pretty similar to this year's, unless manager Martin Jol makes any sweeping changes to the squad during the summer.

Stoke (11th - 33pts from 28 games)

Stoke are Stoke.  Impenetrable at home, less so away, playing rough-and-ready football but quietly getting the job done.  I can't really see Tony Pulis Stoke-ing the flames with any big-name signings over the summer, so I predict more of the same for next season.

West Ham (12th - 33pts from 28 games)

12th place in the Premier League in your first season after promotion from the Championship is a great result for West Ham, and shows what a good job manager Sam Allardyce is doing with his rather down-to-earth squad.  I reckon West Ham will stay around here - and, although Allardyce isn't always loved by the fans, I think the club would be mad to get rid of him after this season's results.

Norwich (13th - 32pts from 28 games)

Norwich.  The best team in the League.  How we're so far down the table is utterly bewildering.

I'm joking, of course.  But I do think Norwich have done much better this season than some commentators might give us credit for - particularly after the turbulence last summer of losing Paul Lambert as manager to Aston Villa, and having such a shaky start to the season.

Before Christmas, a streak of ten games without losing was the best unbeaten run by any team in Europe with the exception of Barcelona, and after a torrid festive period, results are looking up again now, with one win capable of taking Norwich into the top half of the table.

Which brings me to this...  This little group of four mid-table teams (Fulham, Stoke, West Ham and Norwich) are now, effectively, racing each other; all four teams are within one point of each other, but seven points behind West Brom in ninth place - and, at this stage of the season, that's a lot.  Basically, one of these four will claim the final spot in the top half of the table.  I hope it's Norwich.

In the summer, we need to bring it another striker, and an attacking midfielder with a creative spark.  It was disappointing not to be able to get Gary Hooper from Celtic in January, so something similar in the summer, but with more success, is what's required to keep progressing into next season.

Sunderland (14th - 30pts from 28 games)

Sunderland have been misfiring all season, but I think they're going to come good in the last ten games and comfortably avoid the drop.  I doubt they'll finish much higher than their current fourteenth place, to be honest, but I can't see them getting dragged into a relegation battle either.  Their draw with Fulham last weekend was crucial - it was a very gritty, steely performance, to come back form 2-0 down to claim a point, and if they can keep doing that, they'll be fine.

They desperately need to tighten up over the summer, though, and fill in some of the holes in their squad - particularly in midfield.

Newcastle (15th - 30pts from 28 games)

Beset by injuries and bad luck early on in the season, Newcastle are a team performing well below where they perhaps ought to be.  Like Sunderland, they'll finish around the middle of the bottom half of the table - not really a fair reflection on the quality of their squad, to be honest, but at least they won't be in danger of relegation either.

A better start to the season next year should see them back into the top half of the season where they belong, which should help manager Alan Pardew start to look less grizzled in his television interviews.

Southampton (16th - 27pts from 28 games)

Southampton are my girlfriend's team, and as such I am duty bound to support them (unless they're playing Norwich).  Even without this obligation, though, I would be keen to see Southampton stay up in the Premier League this year - they are an interesting and exciting team to watch, and I think they bring a lot to the League.

The Saints started well under their new manager Mauricio Pochettino, following the controversial sacking of Nigel Adkins in January.  A great win over defending champions Manchester City will certainly rank as a high point of their season, and it was sad to see that this didn't continue, as they were (perhaps a little unfairly) beaten by bottom-of-the-table QPR not long after.

I think the Saints will survive - but only just.  If they can get back to playing the way they did in their first few games under Pochettino, they should be fine.

In the summer, however, they need to make a priority of sorting out their problems at the back.  Southampton have no issues with going forward, and scoring goals - but too many defensive and goalkeeping errors have cost them points this season, and that needs to change if they want to build a long-term future in the Premier League.

Wigan (17th - 24pts from 28 games)

Wigan really irritate me, if I'm honest.  It's nothing to do with the club or the players, or even the fans - it's to do with the way football writers and pundits talk about them.  Even if Wigan only had four points at this stage of the season, not twenty-four, footballing "experts" like the BBC's Mark Lawrenson would still be predicting them to avoid relegation, because "they do it every year".

There is an expectation that Wigan will be fine, because they always do something of an escape act in the final third of the season.  In my opinion, this is a bridge too far for them, and the consequences of their slow-to-start ways will finally catch up with them.  They will be relegated at the end of this season.

Aston Villa (18th - 24pts from 28 games)

I guess former Norwich City manager Paul Lambert is discovering that the grass is not always greener on the other side...

With the exception of big Belgian forward Christian Benteke (who has impressed everyone so far this year - and rightfully so), goalkeeper Brad Guzan, and occasional flashes of brilliance from young Austrian player Andreas Weimann, Villa have not really looked like a Premier League team this year.  They will be relegated at the end of this season.

Reading (19th - 23pts from 28 games)

Although currently second-from-bottom, Reading are only one win away from safety in this position.  The situation may look worrying at the moment, but something about Reading this year tells me they may just have the steel to do it this year.  The Royals look like they have more team spirit than Aston Villa above them, and they have pulled off several remarkable come-backs to win against all the odds this year - I think one more comeback may just be on the cards, here.

But like Southampton, things need to change for them before next season - another year of relying on miraculous comebacks to scrape together enough points to avoid relegation will just about kill them.  They need a backbone of good central defenders and central midfielders to stiffen up their shape on the field, and they need to make fewer mistakes in general.

QPR (20th - 20pts from 28 games)

After a truly horrendous season in the Premier League, QPR are certain to go down.  And I'm really sorry, QPR fans - but I, for one, won't be too cut up about that.

Manager Harry Redknapp will leave, after failing to keep Rangers up, and the fans will once again be asking questions.  The best thing QPR could do then would be to get in someone like (ex-Southampton manager) Nigel Adkins, and start again from scratch, building a new team ethic, and working towards making something much more lasting than a quick-fix of throwing money at it, but somehow I just don't think that is owner Tony Fernandes' way.

QPR will be relegated this season.  They will challenge for promotion in the Championship next season, but if they get it, they will struggle just as much in the Premier League during the season after as they have done this year.

Thank you

If you've read all of this - I really appreciate that.  Please feel free to comment, tell me I'm hopeless wrong, tell me that your team still has every chance of making up twenty points over the last ten games to claim the title, or whatever.  I've never claimed to be an expert, and I know I'm just speculating.

One thing's for sure, though - I can't wait to see what will actually happen, as the season draws to a close!